North Korean propaganda reports that 1.4 million young volunteers have applied to join the army in the past two days. A mobilization supposed to be driven by tensions on the peninsula. But while Ukrainian intelligence continues to assert that men from Pyongyang are fighting alongside the Russians, this news questions the role that North Korean soldiers can play in the war in Ukraine.
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10,000 soldiers, a battalion of 3,000 men, 18 deserters, six dead. Unverifiable figures have been appearing in recent days in the media fromUkraine who cite intelligence sources to measure the quantity of North Korean soldiers expected to fight alongside Russian troops. “ Fake news “, replies Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov while the North Korean press agency remains silent. Neither a corpse nor a captured prisoner has yet served as undeniable proof of the presence of North Korean soldiers on the Ukrainian front.
Since its rapprochement with Moscow, the North Korea has repeatedly mentioned sending men to Donbass to carry out reconstruction work. For several decades, North Koreans have crossed the border to work in the Russian Far East. There are tens of thousands of them who are lumberjacks in the Amur region, while others bring foreign currency to the regime thanks to their activities in the construction industry.
But after the conclusion of the strategic partnership » signed by Kim Jong-un And Vladimir Putin during the latter’s visit to Pyongyang in June, speculation was rife. In recent days, North Korea announced the “spontaneous” mobilization of 1.4 million young North Koreans, eager to join the Korean People’s Army. At the same time, the mutual defense pact between the two was tabled before the Russian Parliament, the Duma, this Monday, October 14 for ratification. A gesture which aims to “ provide a legal basis for using North Korean soldiers », Estimates Chris Monday, specialist on Russia and professor at Dongseo University in South Korea. The researcher, however, remains doubtful that this mobilization would already be effective.
Demonize the enemy
For his part, President Volodymyr Zelensky assured the Ukrainian Parliament on October 16 that their “ intelligence services identified not only the transfer of weapons to North Korea, but also the transfer of people ». For Chris Monday, the rhetoric of the man in the khaki t-shirt is also part of kyiv’s communication strategy: “ Zelensky is very good at communicating, warns Chris Monday His country is in trouble and with what is happening in the Middle East, people are forgetting about Ukraine. “.
Showing that North Korea comes to the aid of Vladimir Putin allows both to demonize its enemy, and to reveal that it is in such a desperate situation that its future depends on one of the most marginalized states in the world. Neither Seoul nor Washington have yet confirmed the presence of North Korean soldiers, even if the South Korean Defense Minister described it as “ highly probable “.
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Soldiers and military engineers
The intelligence sources, coming from kyiv and quoted by the Ukrainian pressfirst spoke of the deaths of six North Korean officers earlier this month. These would be military engineers who came to help Russian troops control the firing of KN-23 ballistic missiles delivered by North Korea. Then, on October 15, attention shifted to the “Buryat Battalion,” named after this Mongol ethnic minority in Siberia. 3,000 soldiers are reportedly preparing to join the Russian “11th Airborne Assault Brigade”.
But according to Ukrainian national television Suspilne and the independent media liga.net, they were in fact North Koreans. THE Kyiv Independent discusses for his part, the imminent arrival of 10,000 soldiers from Kim Jong-un, currently training in Russia, while Sulspine went further by announcing the desertion of 18 North Koreans from their position in the Bryansk oblast, in the Russian region of Kursk, close to the Ukrainian border.
A strategic interest for Russia
RFI cannot currently confirm these desertions or these figures put forward by kyiv. On the other hand, having a reinforcement of troops in this region is of clear strategic interest for Russia, according to the researcher from Dongseo University in Busan in South Korea.
“ Vladimir Putin does not want a new Ukrainian breakthrough on his territory, a new Kursk [offensive menée en août par l’Ukraine sur le sol russe. L’armée de Kiev est en recul, mais dispose encore de troupes sur le terrain, NDLR]. For this, soldiers are needed to guard the lines “, explains Chris Monday. “ And sending North Korean troops to Kursk, which is recognized as Russian territory, is less of a provocation than if they end up in Ukraine.”
In his daily notethe Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, believes that reinforcements from North Korea could also allow the Kremlin leader to avoid ” declare a [nouvelle] partial mobilization ” Or ” general » and the potentially harmful effects on Russian society that such a decision could cause. Whatever the reality of this North Korean military presence, if it is as impressive as various Ukrainian intelligence sources claim, concrete evidence should quickly emerge.
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