Having come out on top in the first round in Sarthe, what result can Marie-Caroline Le Pen hope for in the second round of the early legislative elections this Sunday, July 7?
The first part of the challenge has been successful for Marie-Caroline Le Pen. Marine Le Pen’s older sister has been invested by the National Rally for the legislative elections and the results of the first round held this Sunday, June 30th place her in the lead in the 4th constituency of Sarthestronghold of the former Sarkozy supporter François Fillon. She received 39% of the votes cast, ahead of the outgoing MP Elise Leboucher (NFP) at 25.94% and Sylvie Casenave-Péré (Ensemble, 25.88%). She is therefore in a favorable position for the second round of these early legislative elections which will take place on Sunday, July 7, 2024.
It remains to be seen whether the Macronist candidate, Sylvie Casenave-Péré, will withdraw or not. Indeed, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called on all the Ensemble candidates (presidential majority) who came in 3rd place to withdraw this Sunday in order to block the National Rally and present only a “republican” candidate against the Le Penist party, even if the latter is not one of Macronie’s allies. For the time being, the 4th constituency of Sarthe should indeed be the scene of a three-way race between the three candidates who passed the first round, Sylvie Casenave-Péré has not spoken out about a hypothetical withdrawal. If the three-way race were to continue, Marie-Caroline Le Pen would become the big favorite in the election in this territory, because the NFP MP would not benefit from the transfer of votes from the Macronist candidate. Conversely, Marie-Caroline Le Pen could even hope to recover part of the 10% achieved by LR to increase her lead in the second round.
In Sarthe, Marie-Caroline Le Pen believes she is responding to “the call of the activists”
“I don’t feel parachuted in” stated Marie-Caroline Le Pen on June 9 on France Bleu Maine. Indeed, the latter was invested by the RN in the 4th constituency of Sarthe, stronghold of François Fillon whom she does not really know. However, she assures that she “responded to the call of the activists. I was asked to come to try to take this constituency from LFI. If I had wanted a winnable constituency, I would have taken an easier and closer one. The activists of this department asked me to come” she explained.
In 2022, during the last legislative elections, the first round saw the National Rally narrowly fail against La France Insoumise. First in the first round by totaling 21.30% of the votes, against 21.87% for the left-wing candidate. In the second round, the RN narrowly failed, 49.85% against 50.15%. Enough to give legitimate hope to the National Rally candidate to this time tip the scales in her favor in the second round after the victory of the first.
As a reminder, at the national level, during the last European elections on June 9, the RN largely imposed itself with a score of 31%, allowing them to send 30 deputies to the European Parliament. In the 4th constituency of Sarthe, the RN even came out clearly in the lead with 36% of the votes, followed by Renaissance (14%), then the Socialist Party/Place publique at 13%.