What turnout can we expect in the European elections?

What turnout can we expect in the European elections

The participation rate in the 2024 European elections could be higher than five years ago across the European Union. But how many French voters plan to vote?

Will the European elections mobilize more or at least as many voters as the previous election organized five years ago? This is what the elected representatives of the European Parliament hope for and what the results of the European Parliament’s latest Eurobarometer suggest. According to the study, 60% of citizens of the 27 countries of the European Union say they are “interested” in the vote and 71% say they will “probably” vote between June 6 and 9. This is significantly more than the 60% who thought they would put a ballot in the box on the eve of the 2019 European elections.

But if the general enthusiasm around the European elections is greater than five years ago, it varies according to the country. In many European Union member countries, the interest given to the vote is greater, but in France it remained the same as five years ago: 46% of French voters said they were interested in the elections in 2019, they are 47% in 2024.

A participation rate above 50% in France?

For the last European elections, 50.12% of French voters took part in the vote. A rate barely equivalent to half of the voters, but which serves as a record participation since the European elections of 1999. Between these two ballots, the election of MEPs has never mobilized more than half of the French people able to vote. vote. This mobilization was understood by the European Parliament as the “symbol of the good health of democracy in the European Union”.

Will the 2024 European elections confirm this slight upward trend in participation? The latest polls published before Friday June 7 at midnight, the end date of the official campaign and start of the reserve period, estimated the participation rate between 47% and 51%. The share of people saying they want to vote in the European elections increased in daily Ifop polls for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud radio until June 7, going from 47.5% to 51% on the last day of the campaign.

Note that there is often a significant gap between the number of people who say they are going to vote and those who actually go to the polls on election day, as the Eurobarometer demonstrated in 2019: while 60% of European citizens had expressed their intention to vote, on election day the actual turnout rate rose to 50.95% across Europe.

Is France one of the countries that vote the least in the European elections?

According to the European Parliament’s Eurobarometer, France is one of the countries in the European Union whose voters are least interested in the vote. It is also in this country that few inhabitants have a “positive image” of the European Parliament (only 27%, this is the lowest rate) and have a favorable opinion of the European Union (37 %, only the Czechs do worse). Conversely, France is the first nation to have a pessimistic view of Europe.

However, it is not in France that the participation rate in European elections is the lowest. The proof: in 2019 despite the 50.12% participation, the country was more mobilized than 14 other countries out of the 27 in the European Union. French voters voted less than in Belgium (88.5% participation), but more than in Finland (40.8%), Portugal (30.8%) or Slovakia (24. 7%).

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