Two weeks to convince: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris lead the end of the campaign at full speed. The American presidential election, on November 5, promises to be as indecisive as it is hectic. With 14 days to go before the election, no clear winner stands out, but Democratic candidate Kamala Harris seems to be in a bad situation. According to the average of polls held by The New York Times, Kamala Harris is credited with 49% of voting intentions compared to 48% for Donald Trump. A week earlier, according to the same poll average, Kamala Harris was credited with 50% of voting intentions compared to 47% for her Republican rival.
According to the latest weekly survey from the consulting company Morning Consultpublished this Tuesday, October 22, Kamala Harris is still ahead of Donald Trump by four points, with 50% against 46% for the former Republican president. This figure is unchanged from the last update on October 15. Factoring in the poll’s one-percentage-point sampling error margin, his lead could be as small as 49% to 47%, or as wide as 51% to 45%, Morning Consult says. The average of the surveys carried out by FiveThirtyEight shows that the Democratic candidate is again ahead (48.2%) of her Republican opponent (46.4%), but this figure has been in constant decline for several days.
The negative view of voters
According to a Reuters/Ipsos pollthe Democratic vice-president is again narrowly ahead of the former Republican president, with 46% against 43%. Kamala Harris’ lead in this six-day poll, which ended Monday, October 21, differs little from her 45% to 42% advantage over Donald Trump in the same Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier, reinforcing the view that the competition is extraordinarily close.
This new poll shows that American voters have a negative view of the state of the economy and immigration, and they are generally favorable to Donald Trump’s approach on these issues, notes Reuters. About 70% of voters in this poll said the cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same about immigration policy.
National polls, notably those of Reuters/Ipsos, give important indications on the opinion of voters, but the results of the electoral college (Editor’s note: the electors responsible for electing the president and the vice-president), state by state , determine the winner. In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, triumphing in the electoral college result even though the Democratic candidate had won the national popular vote by two points over her Republican opponent.
Trump advantage in Arizona and Georgia
Seven key states, swing statesare likely to be decisive in 2024, and “small” independent candidates will play an important role in these. The average of the polls held by The New York Times shows that Kamala Harris is leading in Michigan (49% to 48%). Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (48% each) while Donald Trump has an advantage in Arizona (50% to 48%) and Georgia (49% compared to 48%).
According to the average of the polls carried out this time by FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump is two points ahead of Kamala Harris in Arizona and one point in Georgia, while Kamala Harris is ahead of her rival by one point in Pennsylvania. The two candidates are almost equal in North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, according to this site designed by ABC News.