The day after Joe Biden’s withdrawal, the conservative British daily The Spectator warns the Grand Old Party (GOP): “Republicans should not underestimate Kamala Harris.” Premonition, or simple political acuity? Because until now, the vice president was known more for her unpopularity than for her role with the White House tenant. However, it’s been almost two weeks since Joe Biden gave up running again, and it’s clear that the gap between him and Donald Trump has only narrowed since then.
This is what is revealed by almost all opinion polls conducted after July 20. If the Republican candidate dominates the vice-president in 14 of the 27 polls conducted, as noted The Economistthe momentum seems to be clearly in Kamala Harris’ favor. In three polls conducted this week, the former California prosecutor is ahead of Donald Trump. 43% of respondents by Reuters/Ipsos say, for example, that they are ready to slip a vote in favor of Kamala Harris against 42% for the billionaire. A gap identical to that observed by the Morning Consulting.
A popularity rating on the rise
In just a few days, a reversal of trends has even been observed. While she only received 35% of favorable opinion last week, Kamala Harris is galloping at the end of July at 43%, according to a study conducted by Ipsos for ABC News. Conversely, while Donald Trump had recorded a breakthrough to 40% after his assassination attempt, his approval rating has since fallen by four points. Echoing a Siena poll published in the New York Times : since February the vice-president has gained 10 popularity points compared to only 4 for Trump.
A breakthrough whose keystone would be on the side of the “independent” or “neither-nor” electorate – those Americans who are neither Republican nor Democrat sympathizers. And for good reason, while Kamala Harris’ popularity soars within this electoral pool, going from 28% to 44% in one week, that of Trump collapses from 35% to 31%, according to ABC News.
A candidacy that galvanizes and could mobilize
While the momentum in favor of Kamala Harris is visible in all the polls, one question remains: is the Oakland native’s popularity rating boosted by the near-unanimous support of her camp or is it, on the contrary, the lever for unity around her candidacy? It is difficult to answer clearly at this point. One thing is certain: enthusiasm is in order.
More than one in two Americans believe that the Democratic Party would benefit from Kamala Harris as its candidate for this election, the Ipsos poll reveals. And this share climbs to 88% among Democratic supporters at a time when Trump’s candidacy only receives 82% approval within the Republican camp.
Kamala Harris’ candidacy also seems to be mobilizing the Democratic electorate. According to data collected by the Ipsos polling institute, more than three-quarters of them say they are “absolutely certain to vote” in the next presidential election, compared to 70% the week before Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign.
Harris, candidate for ethnic minorities and young people
Kamala Harris’ candidacy is generating a certain amount of enthusiasm among the Democratic electorate disappointed with Joe Biden. Among the Hispanic population, and the African-American community, in particular. 49% of African-American voters and 44% of Hispanics say they are much more likely to vote in the supreme election since Joe Biden’s withdrawal,” according to a poll Bloomberg/Morning Consult published this Tuesday, July 30.
“Kamala Harris’ appeal to black and Hispanic voters is a real concern for Trump, who has long wanted to court these groups, particularly the young men who make them up,” our colleagues at BloombergThe same goes for the young electorate, which overwhelmingly supports Kamala Harris’ candidacy.
According to the Siena poll for the New York Timessix out of ten Americans under 30 want to see the former senator enter the White House early next year. Conversely, some Democrats fear a loss of some of Joe Biden’s support, particularly “among the older electorate whose support for the Democratic camp seems to be eroding while it remains loyal to Donald Trump,” points out the New York Times.
Immigration, Kamala Harris’ Achilles heel
Although he seems to have been losing ground over the past ten days, Donald Trump continues to dominate his main rival on his historical issues, such as immigration, for example. A highly inflammatory issue across the Atlantic, and on which Kamala Harris’ candidacy is generating a certain amount of nervousness. More than 40% of those questioned in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll believe that the vice-president has had a somewhat or very negative impact on US immigration policy during her last term.
A higher proportion than for other issues such as the economy and crime. Thus, it would seem that the efforts made by the Republicans, accusing the Democrats of being responsible for the “explosion” of illegal arrivals on the territory, are bearing fruit. Recently, Donald Trump’s entourage even renamed Kamala Harris, “border tsarina”. However, this does not prevent the putative candidate of the Democratic Party from putting Donald Trump in difficulty in several “Swing States”.
In a favorable position in the famous “swing states”
These famous key states, whose outcome of the vote is traditionally uncertain, these could swing to one side of the political spectrum or the other. “Recent polls suggest that Kamala Harris would catch up with Donald Trump in a number of Swing States,” observes the British weekly. The EconomistThe average of the last five polls in Minnesota and New Hampshire shows the Democrat with a lead of about six points in both states.
In addition, several polls show that Kamala Harris would be one point behind Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and would even be neck and neck with him in Michigan. Two states in which Joe Biden was two and four points behind the champion of “MAGA” (for Make America Great Again, slogan used by Ronald Reagan during the 1980 presidential campaign and taken up by Donald Trump) before withdrawing in mid-July.
Faced with the dynamics observed since Joe Biden’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, the Republicans are reassuring themselves as best they can. Thus, this surge in the polls would be nothing more than a “honeymoon,” believes Donald Trump’s campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, brushing aside the warnings of observers. At least, on the surface.