To please Donald Trump. It is with this ambition that the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, must settle down in Washington, Wednesday February 12, during a meeting with the American president against the backdrop of global trade tensions. An opportunity, for the two countries, to strengthen their collaboration in strategic sectors such as trade, technologies and defense, but also to relaunch diplomatic links hampered under the mandate of Joe Biden.
According to Olivier Da Lage, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) and journalist specializing in India, “Modi and his supporters see Trump’s return to business. ‘Biden administration was correct, but Antony Blinken had repeatedly made statements on human rights in India that had not pleased Indian leaders. ” The former secretary of state had notably criticized the policy of Hindutva, which aims to ensure the predominance of Hinduism to the detriment of other religious minorities.
A declining economy
A decisive interview for India, which accumulates economic difficulties. With domestic demand at half mast, the country should see its economic growth slow down: the International Monetary Fund assesses it to 6.5 % this year, after 7 % last year and 8.2 % in 2023. A weakening also found On the side of foreign investments, which fell 43 % between 2022 and 2023, due to “political tensions in the Middle East and in Europe, as well as the more tight liquidity conditions which affected the evolution of foreign direct investments to emerging countries ” According to Bpifrance.
In addition to an unfavorable economic situation for India, threats to increase customs duties from the Trump administration towards Mexico and Canada have already produced their effects. India, which displays a trade surplus of $ 30 billion with the United States, is also afraid of being struck by the same fate. Anticipating Donald Trump’s potential decision in this sense, the country has recently announced to reduce customs duties concerning certain American products.
With the return of Donald Trump to business, Narendra Modi plans to capitalize on the quality of the relationship that the latter had succeeded in building together during the republican’s first mandate (2017-2021). Vikram Misri, the highest official of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said this week that the United States was one of its “strongest international partnerships in recent years”.
Purchase tension subjects
But the Donald Trump second version is very different from its first version, and Washington’s tolerance towards the culture of non-alignment of India could have its limits. True to its strategic autonomy, which consists in being close to everyone, as much as their bilateral relations with the countries around it, it is a balancingist work that Narendra Modi will have to lead during his interview with The American president.
For example, the country has “co -developed an Iranian port called Shabahat in the Arabian Sea and which is a very old and very important project to allow connectivity with Central Asia without having to go through Pakistan”, explains Olivier Da Lage. A project that the United States is looking into a bad eye, and the Trump administration is likely to sanction, according to the researcher.
And while the United States is increasing pressure on China, Chinese and Indian economic exchanges have only increased in recent years in certain key sectors. An essential commercial relationship for India, especially for its pharmaceutical industry, which needs active ingredients from China. A potential subject of additional conflict for the Indo-American relationship.