Having been significantly outpaced in the first round of the legislative elections, can the presidential majority party experience a rebound in the second round this Sunday, July 7? The candidates who have been retained will have a major challenge in trying to maintain a large parliamentary group in the National Assembly.
Will the “Ensemble” coalition, which brings together candidates around the presidential majority, resist the RN wave at the end of the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday, July 7, 2024? The results and lessons from the first round do not lend themselves to optimism for the RN camp.Emmanuel Macron since the coalition gathered just 20.04% of the votes according to the official results transmitted by the Ministry of the Interior, coming in third place and distanced by the National Rally and the New Popular Front.
The first projections thus suggest 60 to 90 seats retained, including 53 to 71 for Renaissance, 19 maximum for the Modem, 4 to 10 for Horizons according to Ipsos Toluna, far from the 2022 score and undoubtedly the hopes of Emmanuel Macron at the time of his dissolution announcement on June 9. Some Macronie bigwigs are still in the lead, such as the President of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet, Aurore Bergé or the Prime Minister himself, Gabriel Attal in the 10th constituency of Hauts de Seine. But credited with 43.85% of the votes, the latter will still have to keep an eye on the candidate of the New Popular Front Cécile Soubelet who obtained 35% of the votes. However, she seems to have a small reserve of votes, which leaves Gabriel Attal in a favorable position.
This is a rather rare case among the Ensemble candidates! While 320 candidates nominated by the presidential majority qualified for the second round, and two were even elected in the first round, only 65 came out on top in the first round. A large majority of them will have to fight against the RN. This is the case for several outgoing deputies such as Eric Woerth in the 4th constituency of Oise, former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne in the 6th constituency of Calvados and figures less known to the general public such as Sandra Marsaud in the 2nd constituency of Charente, Julie Delpech in the 1st constituency of Sarthe or Belkhir Belhaddad in the 1st constituency of Moselle.
What do all of these outgoing MP candidates invested by Renaissance within the Ensemble coalition have in common? They are all several points behind their RN opponents and will have to count on the already announced withdrawal of the New Popular Front candidate to turn things around. This scenario and the possible transfers of votes will be to be followed during the second round. They will obviously be one of the keys to the vote for the Macronists on July 7.
Half as many MPs as in 2022?
The gamble attempted by Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly on the evening of the European elections, on June 9, and therefore to organize early legislative elections, clearly ended in a rejection at the end of the first round. The fault lies with the Renaissance group’s inability to rally broad support for its program. While part of the left was sucked into the Popular Front and the Republicans did not respond to the call for unity, the President of the Republic can nevertheless note progress compared to the European elections of June 9. The list led by Valérie Hayer had then received 14% of the votes.
The decline remains clear in rural areas where only the well-established incumbents have limited the damage while the coalition in the center has been able to regain a few votes in the large urban centers, its historic core target. Enough to obtain a good score on July 7? The step still seems very high…
As a reminder, in June 2022, during the last legislative elections, held in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s re-election, the presidential party – Ensemble! – had thus collected more than 38% of the votes. In the space of two years, its electorate would have almost halved. With 245 seats in the National Assembly before the surprise announcement of the dissolution on June 9, Renaissance could soon have to make do with, at best, a few hundred deputies in the chamber.
Which seats for deputies will Renaissance and Ensemble have after the second round of the 2024 legislative elections?
It is difficult to predict the result of the second round of the legislative elections. Ahead of this second round and in view of the results of the first round and its lessons, here is what the pollster Ipsos Talan for France 2 anticipates as results of the second round of the legislative elections, this Sunday, July 7. The number of seats by party and by political union (NFP, RN, Ens!) are given here. The absolute majority is 289 deputies. These estimates will be refined with the results of voting intentions up to Friday, July 5. With possibly many fewer seats than under the Attal government, which will have lasted only six months if it were to be dismissed at the end of the second round at the beginning of July, the presidential party will certainly no longer have the slightest possibility of forming a government.
The presidential party, founded in 2016 under the name En Marche, nevertheless retains a small hope of collecting the votes of those who, on the left as well as the right, do not recognize themselves in the respective programs of the Popular Front and the National Rally. But in view of the figures, it seems rather unlikely to imagine a favorable outcome for it at the end of these elections.