After a first round of legislative elections which saw the New Popular Front come in second place, what chance does the union of the left have in the second round and what could be its result and number of deputies on the evening of the second round on Sunday 7 July?
The candidates invested by the Popular Front collected 27.99% of the votes, or nearly 9 million votes, during the first round of the early legislative elections organized on Sunday, June 30. What will happen in the second round this Sunday, July 7? While some big names like Mathilde Panot, Manuel Bompard or Olivier Faure were elected in the first round in their respective constituencies, duels are in sight for the second round while, in the case of three-way races, there were many withdrawals, thus following the instructions given last Sunday evening of the RN’s victory, which came out on top in the first round.
Although the Popular Front, joined by the vast majority of the emblematic figures of La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, Europe Écologie les Verts and the French Communist Party, managed to present a common program that convinced a significant number of French citizens, there was no dazzling breakthrough against the National Rally. But the unified left should be able to benefit in the second round from the barriers to the RN to impose itself in certain constituencies. The seat projections a few hours before the second round still leave the far-right party ahead to form the first parliamentary group in the National Assembly.
Here is what the latest polls predict as results for the second round of the legislative elections this Sunday, July 7. Below are the numbers of seats by party and by political union (NFP, RN, Ens!). The absolute majority is 289 deputies. These estimates will be refined with the results of voting intentions until Friday, July 5.
The latest projections attribute between 160 and 180 seats to the representatives of the Popular Front. This is very far from the score needed to obtain an absolute majority – set at 289 seats – but the NFP can still hope to obtain a relative majority at the end of the second round. Indeed, the many withdrawals recorded by the various political parties in order to block the National Rally during this second round should allow the unified left to get its hands on a certain number of constituencies. It remains to be seen whether it will then manage to convince enough deputies in the chamber to be able to obtain a relative majority in the National Assembly.