France soon to be ungovernable again? The risk of government censorship on the 2025 Finance bill poses new uncertainties for the country, less than three months after the appointment of the executive. Monday, November 25, the Senate, with a Republican majority, took up the draft budget of Michel Barnier’s government. If he could oppose certain measures, such as the reduction in subsidies intended for local authorities, always pampered in this hemicycle, he should on the other hand validate the major axes of the text. After that, seven deputies and seven senators will then try to find a compromise during a joint committee (CMP). If they succeed, the final version of the budget will nevertheless have to come back to the Assembly, where Michel Barnier does not have a majority of deputies.
Aiming to make 60 billion euros in savings in order to reduce the deficit to 5% in 2025, the bill arouses numerous oppositions. Marine Le Pen thus announced, after a meeting at Matignon on Monday, that she would not hesitate to censor the government if the text remained “as is”. The leader of the LFI deputies, Mathilde Panot, also said she remained firmly opposed to this budget, “the most socially and ecologically violent” of the Fifth Republic. The Prime Minister could therefore seek to pass in force, via article 49.3 – at the same time exposing himself to a motion of censure, which would be examined around December 20. What would happen if she was adopted? L’Express takes stock of the possible scenarios.
Michel Barnier in place of Michel Barnier?
Unlikely scenario, but not impossible: in the event of the fall of the Barnier government, Emmanuel Macron could choose to appoint as Prime Minister… Michel Barnier. “There has already been a precedent in the history of the Fifth Republic: in 1962, while Georges Pompidou faced a motion of censure, Charles de Gaulle refused his resignation. The difference is that while maintaining Georges Pompidou in office head of the government, de Gaulle dissolved the Assembly and called legislative elections, in order to give his Prime Minister the opportunity to return with a more favorable balance of power before Parliament”, explains Jean Garrigues, specialist in political history French.
However, the context is different for the President of the Republic who, having already dissolved the Assembly last June, must wait a year before being able to reconvene elections if he wishes. Keeping Michel Barnier without a change in the composition of the chamber would therefore amount to keeping the executive in an impasse.
The possibility of a technical government
In the absence of a clear majority emerging, Emmanuel Macron would also have the possibility of appointing a Prime Minister at the head of a “technical” government, responsible for handling current affairs. This would be a personality probably coming from the world of senior administration, and not directly from the political sphere or parties. “This compromise could perhaps allow a consensus of political parties to support it. But the president would be faced with a casting difficulty: who to occupy this position? Especially since this pretender would be subject to very political pressure, and always at the mercy of a possible motion of censure”, continues Jean Garrigues.
The choice of a new political majority
Another option is to try to find a solution to the ungovernability of the country in a new majority, this time not on the right, but rather in the center, by trying to rally support from the most moderate socialist wing. “In recent days we are still talking about the Bernard Cazeneuve hypothesis, which could rally the PS to the Macronists, or even among certain Republicans”, comments the historian, who nevertheless specifies that this solution, like all the others “is imperfect”. “This would require the PS to break with the New Popular Front. With all the potential consequences at the electoral level, not sure that it is ready,” judges Jean Garrigues.
Towards a resignation of Emmanuel Macron?
Finally, a little music in recent days calls for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron to break the political impasse. François Ruffin challenged the president by inviting him “to think seriously” about this option. “Charles de Gaulle himself resigned following a plebiscite, recalls Jean Garrigues. However, given the international context marked by great instability – negotiations on the course of the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East – I doubt that the President wants to add crisis to crisis.”
“In all cases, we are moving towards an unstable situation,” summarizes the historian. The tripartition of the French political spectrum without an absolute majority will not be resolved tomorrow. However, the culture of the Fifth Republic is not that of the compromise. This will require a change in practices in this area.