The curve is damn boring. On the website of the Levada Center, the only major independent and reliable polling institute in Russia, the graph representing the evolution of Russian support for Vladimir Putin appears on the first page. Some dips, some rises… But on average, since 1999, positive opinions towards the master of the Kremlin have rarely fallen (if ever) below 60%, and often hovered around 80%… As in September last: 84%. Enough to feed one of the sea serpents that sticks to the skin of Russians, according to which despite electoral fraud, the repression of dissent and propaganda, Vladimir Putin would still be widely supported by his population.
The latest survey carried out by the Chronicles research project, an independent polling group led by the Russian opponent Alexey Minyaylo as well as a team of sociologists, nevertheless reveals a much less flattering reality for the master of the Kremlin: namely that behind these rates outrageously high approval ratings, in fact hides a rejection of everything proposed, or almost, by Vladimir Putin… “Our objective is not to dot the i’s, but to demonstrate that the approval rating of the work of Putin is a much less unambiguous characteristic than some sociologists and citizens believe, the sociologists write in the preamble. And that expressing approval does not at all mean supporting a number of key actions of Putin.
Putin’s policy in three points
“Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Vladimir Putin’s work as President of Russia?” Like the Levada Center, the researchers began by asking this simple question to 800 people, between September 10 and 17. Unsurprisingly, the figure obtained by the Chronicles research project (78%) is close to the 84% of the largest independent polling institute. For good reason: “any pollster, even independent, will come up against self-censorship by respondents in Russia. No one wants to take the risk of appearing as a dissident or displeasing the Kremlin, so we inevitably obtain this kind of figures at first,” explains Alexey Minyaylo, who has spoken several times in our columns. But the opponent’s team did not stop there. “We asked ourselves what is the essence of Putin’s policy, to question the Russians who support him on these specific points, and thus confirm whether or not they really support him.” This is how the team chose three axes representative, according to them, of the current policy of the Russian president: the confrontation with the West, the priority of foreign policy over domestic issues, and the war in Ukraine.
Verdict: on these three points, it is an understatement to say that Russians who say they support Vladimir Putin disagree with his actions. In reality, 61% would like to conclude a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions. 43% would like to restore relations with Western countries, and only 25% said they agreed to mobilize men to participate in the “special military operation”. Better: 83% said they wanted to focus political efforts on internal social and economic problems…
These results are all the more striking when superimposed with those obtained from Russians who say not support Vladimir Putin – 79% of them being in favor of a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions, 90% in favor of restoring relations with the West, 13% to mobilize men to participate to war, and 92% calling for a concentration of efforts on internal social and economic problems. “The numbers are obviously higher among respondents who do not support Putin, but the order of magnitude is still revealing: although the majority of respondents express support for Putin, the overwhelming majority want things that same those who are against Putin want… If you want to restore relations with Western countries, that means you don’t buy his propaganda!”, reacts Alexey Minyaylo.
14% real support
In reality, the real proportion of support on which the head of the Kremlin can count, that is to say those aware of what his policy entails, seems much lower than the scenes of jubilation and crowd baths filmed by state television could suggest…. According to the Chronicles research project, those who voted for Vladimir Putin and who say they support him represent 52% of respondents. But those who are truly informed about what his political project contains, in solidarity with his foreign policy, with the war in Ukraine, and who do not express the wish to reestablish relations with Western countries only represent… 14% of those surveyed .
“These results are the key to enabling a change of perspective,” comments Alexey Minyaylo. “A democratic Russia is likely to be a friend of the West. It is therefore essential to oppose Putin, but it is counterproductive to alienate ordinary Russians because if Putin keeps saying that he does everything for his people, Russians know that is not true. In fact, if more than four out of five respondents said they wanted political efforts to focus on internal social and economic problems, the 2025 budget bill announced by the Russian Finance Ministry predicts that military spending will represent nearly a third of federal spending… “The vacuum left by current policy on domestic issues will end up being a problem for the Kremlin. Putin, for his part, will probably not change his priorities. But the next government, even if it comes from his entourage , will have no choice but to tackle this problem. This is the lot of autocracies: Putin can be blind to the aspirations of the Russians because his power rests only on himself. he will die (or retire, who knows…), whoever succeeds him will not be able to count on this asset.”
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