what result of the polls for the legislative elections?

ZEMMOUR. Candidate for the legislative elections in the Var, what result can Eric Zemmour hope for? A survey gives the trend.

Eric Zemmour does not want to be forgotten. Beaten hands down by Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 1^er turn of the presidential election, the neo-politics always intends to weigh in the debate and make its voice heard. If the very wide echo from which he benefited during the campaign for the Elysée has largely dissipated, the president of Reconquest does not want to fall into oblivion. Exit the Elysian failure, National Assembly objective now. The former journalist Figaro announced to appear in the 4^and constituency of the Var. A parachuting in order like so many others, from any party, for the parliamentary election. For this Parisian native of Seine-Saint-Denis, it is therefore on the Côte d’Azur that he must convince the voters to win a seat in the Bourbon palace. From the posh Saint-Tropez on the shores of the Mediterranean where he won 22% to the small village of Cabasse, inland, which only granted him 13% of the vote, Eric Zemmour will have to convince, he who sees in this territory the symbol of the project it carries, similar to that of the presidential election. “This constituency embodies very well the alliance that I am looking for. I continue to think that the working classes, like the patriotic bourgeoisie, are attached to their country. Otherwise they would not vote Marine Le Pen but Jean-Luc Mélenchon. I will therefore talk about the identity of France”, he assured on the sidelines of a trip to Saint-Tropez, Saturday May 21, 2022. A speech that could make him win? The result is far from certain.

A period of suspense, then the verdict. A month after his failure in the first round of the presidential election, Eric Zemmour announced that he was running for the legislative elections in the Var. The far-right candidate is launching in the 4th constituency, that of Saint-Tropez, Sainte-Maxime, Ramatuelle, Bornes-les-Mimosas, Les Arcs or even Le Luc.

Born in Montreuil, in Seine-Saint-Denis, studying in the suburbs then in Paris, before leading his entire career in the capital, the nomination of Eric Zemmour on the shores of the Mediterranean seems like a parachute drop. It is above all a land on which he quickly found an electorate won over to his cause during the campaign for the presidential election, especially since his entourage assures us that he is “very attached to his Mediterranean roots ” and that the Gulf of Saint-Tropez is “a region to which he is very attached”.

If very few local polls on the legislative elections are carried out by the institutes, some nevertheless carry out surveys on voting intentions. This is particularly the case of Ipsos which questioned, from May 13 to 18, 600 people registered on the electoral lists in the constituency (112,039 registered on 1^er presidential tower). The result of the study credits Eric Zemmour with 24% of voting intentions on 1^er round, placing the candidate in 2^and position behind Sereine Meuborgne (LREM, outgoing MP), but ahead of Philippe Lottiaux (RN, 21%) and Sabine Cristofani-Viglion (19%, NUPES). In the second round, the far-right candidate would however be beaten by the representative of the presidential majority (53% to 47%).

If a poll gives it in the second round, Eric Zemmour will have to fight to see a ballot in his name be offered to voters on Sunday June 19. If he does not arrive in 2nd position, the candidate must have obtained a score at least equivalent to 12.5% ​​of those registered. An attainable goal? The essayist will have to convince. Because in the first round of the presidential election, if he had won 14.7% of the votes cast in the constituency, this only represented 10.61% of the votes compared to the number of registered voters. However, on the side of Saint-Tropez (22.42%) or Grimaud (21.4%), Eric Zemmour had obtained a result three times higher than his national score. What open up prospects for the National Assembly?