Gabriel Attal is a candidate for the legislative elections, but he is also playing his place as Prime Minister during this election. He is in fact aiming for a victory for the presidential majority, but what result can he obtain in his constituency?
Gabriel Attal is playing big with these early legislative elections. The Prime Minister risks leaving Matignon only six months after moving there in the event of the defeat of the presidential majority in the elections of June 30 and July 7. Because more than the composition of the National Assembly, it is also the formation of a government which is at stake if a bloc other than that of the presidential camp imposes a majority in the hemicycle. Aware of the risks, the head of government fully invested in the campaign by being the leader of the Macronist camp, despite the repeated interventions of Emmanuel Macron.
The Prime Minister’s involvement is such that he continues the debates a few days before the first round of the legislative elections. Gabriel Attal faces representatives of the two other strong blocs in the campaign: the union of the left under the New Popular Front and the National Rally. These representatives are also seen as possible contenders for Matignon, like Jordan Bardella who is eyeing the position. After a first debate on TF1 against Jordan Bardella and the rebellious Manuel Bompard, Gabriel Attal must do it again on Thursday June 27 against Jordan Bardella (again) and the socialist Olivier Faure on France 2.
These confrontations allow the head of government to assert the majority’s policy, but his strategy consists above all of trying to discredit the projects of the opposing camps which “promise the moon” but which, according to him, cannot be financed. Describing the two rival blocs as “extreme” which he places back-to-back, Gabriel Attal also plays the reason card and estimated during the first debate that “those who are between 30 and 60 years old and who work today “Today should be afraid when hearing” the extreme right and the union of the left. A posture that he has held since the start of the campaign: “It is I who, with our candidates Together for the Republic, are proposing another path, a positive path for the future of the country,” he declared on June 17.
The results of the legislative polls favorable for Attal?
Gabriel Attal got involved in the campaign, even though he opposed Emmanuel Macron’s idea of dissolving the National Assembly. But it is clear that the presidential majority is not in a good position in the results of the legislative polls: it gravitates around the 20% mark with 5 to 10 points behind the Union of the Lefts and around fifteen behind the extreme right.
The Prime Minister, however, clings to the slight breakthrough made by his camp in voting intentions in the latest opinion studies which makes him say that the majority bloc is the one which is “the most dynamic […] because many French people are in shock.” “They want to vote for the Republic and against the extremes” he assured on France 3 Burgundy Franche-Comté on June 24.
What result in the legislative elections for Gabriel Attal?
If he plays his place as Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal must also be re-elected as a deputy in the 10th constituency of Hauts-de-Seine. Victory is also a condition for remaining in Matignon, as much as obtaining a majority by the presidential camp. The head of government was elected twice in this territory in 2017 and 2022. During the last legislative elections, he won the vote with 59.85% of the votes against the socialist Cécile Soubelet, after coming first in the first round with 48.06% votes cast.
However, it is in a completely different context that he presents himself in 2024. Apart from the rise of the RN, he will be confronted with his results of his six months as Prime Minister. The fact remains that during the European elections which saw an overwhelming victory for the far right, the majority still came out on top in the constituency of Gabriel Attal, although narrowly with 21% of the votes against 19.64% for the PS, 13.33 for LFI and 11.88% for the RN.
On June 30, Gabriel Attal will face eight candidates: Sébastien Laye, from the right-wing union, Béatrice Guillemet for various left, Herlander Ferreira Do Amaral for Reconquête!, Clément Perrin for LR, Cécile Soubelet for NFP, Laurent Viguié for Lutte ouvrière, Esteban Ygouf or Nicolas Lemesle.
Gabriel Attal about to leave Matignon?
In the event of victory for the presidential camp and obtaining a majority in the National Assembly, Gabriel Attal should be reappointed to Matignon. But in the event of defeat, the head of state would undoubtedly have to replace the head of government either with a Prime Minister from the camp that has become the majority in the National Assembly – Jordan Bardella or Jean-Luc Mélenchon have already come forward – or by Prime Minister capable of bringing together a larger coalition majority ranging from the right of the Republicans to the left of the Social Democrats. Everything depends on the results of the legislative elections, but those of the polls are not optimistic. “He knows that Matignon is over,” said a minister to the Parisian.
But the Prime Minister hopes to consolidate his stature as Prime Minister with the vote. “This is the first time in more than twenty-five years that the French will choose a Prime Minister. On January 9, the President of the Republic appointed me. On June 30, I would like the French to choose me,” he declared during his press conference at the Renaissance campaign headquarters. And Emmanuel Macron’s right-hand man recalled that “the result of the election is not who is President of the Republic, it is who is Prime Minister, who governs, with which government and which majority.”
Even in the event of victory, Gabriel Attal might not see Matignon again. It is customary that in the 24 to 48 hours following the election, the French Prime Minister presents the resignation of his government regardless of the results at the polls and even if he can be re-appointed immediately for “courtesy” . The President can then refuse or accept it.