BOLSANORO. The outgoing president of Brazil hopes to re-enlist with a second term but has always been ahead of Lula in the polls. What result can Bolsonaro expect this Sunday, October 30, 2022?
Bolsonaro has not once stopped presenting himself as the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil. And yet the results of the polls never proved him right. This Sunday, October 30, 2022 the second round of voting must decide and the outgoing president will know in the evening if he is re-elected or if the opinion polls were right to bet on Lula’s victory. The Bolsonarist camp is convinced that the victory will go to Jair Bolsonaro, he even considers it inconceivable that it could be otherwise. Worse, according to activists, a victory for the left-wing candidate against the far-right outgoing president can only be the result of electoral fraud.
But then how will Boslonaro react if he loses the election in Brazil? Having repeatedly mentioned fraud and even being at the origin of a disinformation campaign on this subject, the probability that the president will judge the results incorrect is strong. The politician could even challenge them as he himself admitted before the first round of voting. In recent days, however, the candidate’s speech has changed until he assures Friday, October 28, after the presidential debate, that the result of the ballot will be respected, as reported by CNN Brasil: “There is no slightest doubt. Whoever has the most votes wins. That’s democracy.” The reaction of Jair Bolsonaro is difficult to predict in fact and Brazil could remain under tension for several hours after the announcement of the results, the time that the reports of the Superior Electoral Tribunal, the commission and the Ministry of Defense, the latter placed under the cup of the outgoing president, be returned. Bolsonaro was still called by Lula to accept the result of the election and “not to sow confusion in the country”.
Throughout the campaign between the two rounds, the results of the polls were rather tight between Lula and Bolsonaro and the trend was confirmed in the latest polls published by Datafolha and Atlas this October 27. The two surveys bet on a score of 47% for the outgoing president against 53% for his rival Lula. The margin of error is evaluated between 1.5 and 2 and if it allows to leave the advantage to Lula, a surprise can still occur during the results of the presidential election.