Candidate in the 6th constituency of Calvados, Elisabeth Borne qualified for the second round, but without coming in first place. Will she succeed in being re-elected?
Everything remains to be done for Elisabeth Borne. According to the results of the Ministry of the Interior, it is the RN candidate Nicolas Calbrix who comes out on top in Elisabeth Borne’s stronghold with 36.26%, ahead of the former Prime Minister who was running under the banner of the presidential majority and who obtained 28.93%. The NFP candidate Noé Gauchard was also qualified with 23.16% but decided to withdraw to block the RN. A choice in favor of the Prime Minister since she should benefit from a transfer of votes from a good part of the left-wing electorate. Nevertheless, will this be enough for Elisabeth Borne given the lead observed by the RN candidate in the first round?
The former head of government called on “all voters who identify with the values of the Republic, who want answers, concrete, practical, rapid solutions” to vote for her, denouncing “the unrealistic and dangerous promises” of her opponent.
Thank you to all the voters of the 6th constituency who trusted me during this first round. I call on all republican forces, from the Caen plain to the Virois bocage, via Norman Switzerland.
Let’s mobilize. #legislatives2024
— Elisabeth BORNE (@Elisabeth_Borne) July 1, 2024
Furthermore, the former Prime Minister had presented some points of her program in the event of re-election. Actu.frshe looked back on her first two years of action in the constituency. “In two years, we have taken concrete action to respond to the concerns of residents: in terms of training young people and in response to the recruitment needs of businesses, thanks to the creation of the ‘Fil en Normandie’ production school in Condé-en-Normandie; for serving the territory, with 10 million euros for work to improve the Paris-Granville line; for access to care in medical deserts by initiating the medicobus project or for security in our territory by installing a mobile gendarmerie brigade based in Bény-Bocage, which covers Noues de Sienne and Souleuvre en Bocage”, she explained. She thus assured that she would continue to act for “more quality and local public services, to support our local economy, for our agriculture, for equal opportunities, for our young people as well as for our elders. And finally, for our security”.
What result in the second round of the legislative elections for Elisabeth Borne?
In the 2022 legislative elections, Elisabeth Borne had totaled 52.46% of the votes cast against the Nupes candidate, Noé Gauchard. For this second round in 2024, she therefore completely changes opponents. With 34.3% of the votes cast, she had obtained a better score in the first round in 2022 than this Sunday and had come in first place. That being said, the election two years earlier had been marked by a much higher abstention rate.
If the presidential majority seemed well established in the territory, with the LREM deputy, Alain Tourret, then the former Prime Minister, the European elections have reshuffled the cards. Jordan Bardella’s list, in fact, came out on top with 34% of the votes in the constituency, far ahead of the presidential majority list (19.87%). A context which therefore seems to have benefited Nicolas Calbrix while the former Prime Minister is perhaps paying the price for her mandate and her countless appeals to Article 49.3. The 39-year-old opponent, originally from Rouen, had declared for Actu.fr before the first round that Elisabeth Borne “is the symbol of Macronie” and that “these elections will punish Mrs. Borne and two years of brutality.”
FurthermoreAccording to an Ipsos Toluna poll for France 2 which anticipates the number of seats by party and not by political union, the RN could obtain between 204 and 244 seats and their allies from Ciott between 26 and 36 seats, followed by the NFP which would obtain 180 to 200 seats, including 58 to 72 LFI, 33 to 43 PS, 28 to 38 EELV, 6 to 12 PCF. The presidential camp and its allies would come third with between 60 and 90 seats, including 53 to 71 Renaissance, 13 to 19 MoDem, 4 to 10 Horizons. The Republicans and various right-wing parties can hope for between 41 and 61 seats. If these are trends observed at a specific moment, they seem to show that the majority candidates have less chance of winning than the two other major political forces in the race.