WHOLE. To win the majority in the National Assembly, Emmanuel Macron set up a coalition between LREM, the MoDem and Horizons. Can the alliance with François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe allow him to achieve a substantial result?
A slightly feverish serenity. It is in this state of mind that Emmanuel Macron and the lieutenants of the President of the Republic seem to approach the legislative elections. Although the Head of State has endeavored to reduce as much as possible the gap which separated his victory in the presidential election from the first round of the parliamentary ballot by casting suspense over the composition of his future government, his entourage seems to fear the results of June 12 and 19, without worrying about a possible defeat which would lead to cohabitation. Because nothing seems to predict a scenario in which the “Ensemble” coalition (bringing together LREM, which has become Renaissance, the MoDem and Horizons) would not obtain a majority in the National Assembly, as in 2017. First, because the case of a defeat of the presidential party in the legislative elections the day after a presidential victory has never happened, then because the few polls on voting intentions indicate that Emmanuel Macron will be able to count on a sufficient number of deputies defending his Politics.
But then, where does the slight wind of concern that crosses the macronie come from? To embark on the battle for the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron has sealed an agreement to obtain a majority in the National Assembly. As in 2017. But unlike five years ago, the President of the Republic is not simply linked to François Bayrou. Édouard Philippe has indeed entered the dance. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political personality of the French) grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight, in case of disagreement (read below). However, this shading only concerns the politico-political sphere.
At the national level, the deadline for the legislative elections appears to be the ideal opportunity for the presidential majority to strengthen its weight within the executive, despite the union of the left, which does not seem to be a real threat, no more as the National Rally despite its eruption, once again, in the second round of the presidential election, or even Les Républicains which, despite their status as a “local party”, should not come and play spoilsport.
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. United under the banner “Together”, LREM, the MoDem , Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of Progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (Barbara Pompili’s party chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a support pact for Emmanuel Macron , conducting negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
For the legislative elections, far fewer polls than during the presidential election are carried out by the various institutes. However, surveys on voting intentions are carried out and make it possible to obtain a snapshot, at the moment T, of what the next National Assembly could look like. According to the results of the studies carried out, “Together” would win between 26 and 28% of the votes cast in the first round. A score which, depending on the scenario, would only give it second place on the evening of June 12, just behind NUPES, the left-wing coalition, given between 27 and 30%. On the other hand, according to the projections, it is LREM and its allies who would obtain the majority of the seats in the Bourbon palace. While it takes 289 seats to be in the majority, Together would win between 290 and 330 places in the hemicycle. Currently, the presidential majority represents 350 seats.
If the polls do not predict the choice of voters and the final result of the legislative elections, the trend gives the coalition “Together” majority in the National Assembly, although the deputies of Emmanuel Macron would be fewer than in 2017. During the presidential election, the President of the Republic came out on top in the first round in 266 constituencies, before being placed in the lead in 418 of them in the second. However, on April 24, Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor any representative of the NUPES were present given the voting method.
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in reality be used for a “refounding process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.