Will the future Prime Minister come from the left, the right or a coalition? The New Popular Front is putting forward several candidates, none of whom are unanimous, while other parties are trying to form coalitions.
When and by whom will Gabriel Attal be replaced at Matignon? More than a week after the legislative elections, no name has been seriously put forward for the position of Prime Minister. It must be said that the composition of the National Assembly has clearly revised the balance of power: no party has an absolute majority and therefore no party is sure to see its Prime Minister remain at the head of the government for long. Logic dictates that coalitions be formed to obtain as many votes as possible in the chamber, but no alliance is in sight. Especially not the one wanted by Emmanuel Macron and going from the social-democratic left to the republican right.
The New Popular Front, which came out on top in the legislative elections with the largest number of deputies despite being deprived of an absolute majority, believes that it is legitimate to install itself at the head of the country thanks to the appointment of a Prime Minister. The union of the left has institutional logic on its side, since tradition dictates that the government returns to the political force acclaimed by the voters. But after a week of negotiations and past the deadline it had set itself, the New Popular Front has still not managed to agree on the name of a candidate for the position of Prime Minister.
On both the left and the right, names are circulating for Matignon, but which ones? And of all the candidates for Matignon, which ones are most likely to be able to install themselves at the head of the government or capable of gathering enough support to escape a motion of censure? This is a real headache for Emmanuel Macron who, let us remember, is the only one to choose the Prime Minister, but must take into account the majority in place in the National Assembly, whether it is favorable to him or not.
The New Popular Front has become the most powerful group in the National Assembly in the early legislative elections of 2024, even though it does not have a majority. Buoyed by the results of the vote, the left-wing union is demanding to govern and is urging Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from its ranks. However, the various member parties of the union have not yet reached an agreement on a profile of a potential Prime Minister from their ranks:
- A rebellious Prime Minister : La France Insoumise (LFI) immediately wanted the designation of a Prime Minister to be the responsibility of the party with the largest representation within the union, that is, itself. The name of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has put himself forward on several occasions, has in fact been ruled out, even though he is still supported by the Insoumis. Three other names of LFI elected officials have been put forward: Clemence Guette, Manuel Bompard And Mathilde Panot. The names of Clémentine Autain and François Ruffin were also put forward for a time in the hypotheses, without being supported by the rebels, the two elected officials having distanced themselves from LFI. The party, however, supported the option proposed by the French Communist Party and the nomination of the president of Réunion. Huguette Bello. But the latter declined the offer.
- A socialist Prime Minister : the Socialist Party has not adhered to Huguette Bello’s proposal and also hopes that the profile designated for Matignon comes from its ranks. The first secretary of the party, Olivier Faurewas clearly pushed by several elected members of the party. The socialist boss himself said he was “ready to take on the role”, but other names were also mentioned: Boris Vallaud, Carole Delga or François Hollande, but the latter was quickly dismissed by the left for Matignon. Olivier Faure also plans to open the list of candidates for Matignon to personalities from civil society.
- A Green Prime Minister : The Greens want a consensus figure to be appointed. Within the party itself, several names of contenders have been mentioned, including the leader Marine Tondelier who stood out at the end of the legislative campaign and was acclaimed by several elected officials. Other names of environmentalists cited include those of Cyrielle Chatelain, Cecile Duflot or of Yannick Jadot.
But a left-wing Prime Minister, regardless of the party he comes from, will not be able to remain at the head of the government if he does not obtain the support of a majority extending beyond the New Popular Front. While some personalities call for opening up to the left wing of Macronie and up to the maximum center-left, others oppose a coalition like LFI or the head of the PS who call for majorities by projects. Not only refusing alliances, the New Popular Front could suffer from dissensions between its own members: LFI and the PS have already mutually accused each other of deliberately prolonging negotiations to weaken the alliance.
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios are on the table:
- A coalition between Renaissance and Les Républicains : the presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore have nearly 230 deputies and become a majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seems possible, but the right is reluctant to once again play the role of crutch for Macronist elected officials. Behind the scenes, Edouard Philippe, capable of bridging the gap between Macronism and the right, is trying to convince the Republicans. If such a coalition were to emerge, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more particularly from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right, why not an elected official like Aurelien Pradié ? The Republicans would make the appointment of a right-wing Prime Minister a condition of a coalition.
- A coalition between the New Popular Front and Renaissance : the presidential camp or its left wing could also move closer to the left on condition that LFI, which is part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. A condition currently refused by a part of the left which is reluctant to join the presidential camp.
- A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right : this is a scenario called for by the presidential camp and Emmanuel Macron in a letter addressed to the French people on July 10, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement.
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field rather than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing any major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections.
In this case, the appointment of a rather centrist or moderate Prime Minister on the left or right and especially experienced in the role of “old sage” holds the rope. Names like Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples. There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality.
When will the Prime Minister be appointed?
The future Prime Minister will not be appointed for several days, it could even be weeks according to some. Before appointing a new head of government, Emmanuel Macron must accept the resignation of the current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. A decision that could be taken between July 16 and 17: after the Council of Ministers convened on Tuesday, July 16 and before the election of the President of the National Assembly scheduled for Thursday, July 18.
But Gabriel Attal’s resignation will not mean that his successor will be appointed immediately. The Prime Minister will remain, temporarily, at the head of a resigning government to manage current affairs until the arrival of the new head of government and his ministers. This period could last as long as it takes to form a coalition or for Emmanuel Macron to think things over. Maintaining a resigning government until the end of the Paris Olympic Games seems conceivable, and preferable according to elected officials from the presidential camp. Others believe that the life of the resigning government could go well beyond that: until the opening of the next ordinary session of the National Assembly, that is to say until October 1. This hypothesis is raised by The world.