what motivated the voters’ choice – L’Express

what motivated the voters choice – LExpress

As French political parties prepare to enter the campaign for the early legislative elections on June 30, following the dissolution of the National Assembly, the motivations and profile of voters during these European elections are emerging.

Thus, the Elabe cabinet unveils this Monday, June 10 a study on the origins of the vote of the European vote of June 9. A survey commissioned for BFMTV, La Tribune Dimanche and RMC, carried out during the day on Sunday among a representative sample of 3,000 people registered on the electoral lists for these European elections. Beyond 48.5% of abstaining voters reported, of which almost a third expressed in Elabe their distrust towards the political class, this survey returns above all to the factors which motivated the choice of voters. Notably, the large victory of the National Rally, with 31.3% of the votes.

The RN in the lead regardless of socio-economic level

First observation: the RN vote is omnipresent and seems to have conquered all levels of society. According to this survey, whatever the socio-professional category (CSP) or the level of education of voters, the far-right party is first or tied in percentage of votes. Thus, 18% of executive voters say they voted for the RN, ahead of 16% of voters for the Socialist Party. Likewise, 17% of voters with a Master’s or doctorate indicate having voted for the RN, on par with their peers who voted PS or Renaissance.

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Despite everything, the National Rally vote increases as the level of education falls. Elabe reports that 32% of voters with a baccalaureate level voted for the far-right party, and that half of voters with a lower baccalaureate level declared the same vote. A phenomenon which is confirmed across socio-professional categories: 41% of employees and 52% of workers express their vote for the RN.

A vote motivated by purchasing power and immigration

Common point of these groups of voters: they are also the least well paid CSPs. Financial difficulties are in fact another driving force behind the vote for the National Rally during these European elections. According to Elabe’s study, 41% of voters who declared themselves restricted at the end of the month voted for Jordan Bardella’s party. Conversely, 27% of those who say they do not restrict themselves indicate an RN vote.

And for good reason: whatever the party, purchasing power and inflation is the theme that counted the most in the choice of voters in the European election of June 9: 45% of voters name it as their first or second motivation. of their vote, compared to 27% during the 2019 European elections. Five years ago, this main motivation was for global warming and environmental protection.

Still according to this survey, National Rally voters also place purchasing power and inflation in second place among their priorities, behind immigration. This is the other theme increasing compared to 2019: immigration is named as the first or second motivation for 37% of all voters surveyed, regardless of party. Or 8% more than in 2019.

Reports of votes favorable to the far right

Finally, another point from the Elabe poll allows us to better understand the large victory of the National Rally: the change of party of many voters compared to their choice in 2022. The far-right party could in particular have benefited from the division of votes among its competitors.

Despite their third place in the 2019 European elections, the Ecologists would thus have lost a large part of their voters. Thus, 41% of voters surveyed who voted for the ecologist Yannick Jadot in 2022 transferred their vote to the list of the Socialist Party and Place publique, led by Raphaël Glucksmann. The socialist also attracted 14% of voters surveyed who voted for Emmanuel Macron in 2022, further nuanced the weight of the presidential camp against the RN.

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But above all, Jordan Bardella’s list benefited from votes from other parties in its favor. This is first of all the case for voters of the small far-right Reconquest party: almost half of the voters questioned who voted for Éric Zemmour in 2022 preferred the National Rally for Sunday’s election. More numerous, it is mainly the voters of the right-wing Republicans who have taken the plunge towards the RN for these European elections. According to the Elabe poll, a quarter of Valérie Pécresse’s voters in 2022 changed their vote on Sunday in favor of the far-right party.