Estimates of Putin’s efforts have ranged from uniting Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus as a symbolic “mother Russia” to more concrete goals, such as the promise that Ukraine will not join the EU or NATO.
In any case, Russia has already had to retreat on its key objectives in the war in Ukraine, experts say.
One of them is the change of power in Ukraine.
At the start of the war, the president Vladimir Putin declared his wish to remove “Nazis and drug addicts” from power in Ukraine. Putin referred to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky administration.
Now the sound on the clock is different.
Docent of Military Sciences, University Lecturer Ilmari Käihkö According to the Swedish National Defense College, Russia has abandoned not only its goal of ousting President Zelensky but also – according to Putin – condemning the “perpetrators of the genocide” in the Donbass region.
– These goals were withdrawn quite quickly after only a few days of war, as Ukraine’s resistance turned out to be higher than Russia had estimated. They would have been too difficult to implement, Käihkö says.
Putin presents because he already had to compromise
President of the Republic talking to Putin over the phone Sauli Niinistö said last week that the change of government in Ukraine is no longer on Putin ‘s list. According to Niinistö, Putin claimed that there never was.
The claim is not true, says a leading researcher familiar with Russia and its anticipation Blue Flower Island About the Foreign Policy Institute.
– Regardless of what Putin said to Niinistö, the Russian offensive war in Ukraine at first seemed like a very classic change of power operation. Now Putin suggests that would not have been their goal, Saari says.
The rationale for this is evidenced, for example, by the talk of Ukraine’s “denacification”, which would make the Zelensky regime more favorable to Russia.
Putin’s claim reveals he has had to retreat.
– Of course, the change of regime would be a much more difficult goal for Ukraine, because the change of power of the elected government could threaten the very existence of the state and its independence. Demilitarization potentially refers to the destruction of military capability, Saari says.
Expulsion would not benefit Putin
Researcher Sinikukka Saari estimates that during the change of power, Putin sought the same political situation that prevailed before the 2014 conquest of Crimea.
That is, even if Ukraine were formally independent, Russia would be able to guide those in power and dictate the pace of Ukrainian politics.
The idea was based on a miscalculation of modern Ukraine.
– Ukraine has changed tremendously since 2014. Russia united Ukraine even then and confirmed the general perception of the national specificity of the Ukrainians and that Russia was not acting in the interests of Ukraine.
According to experts, the expulsion of Volodymyr Zelensky and the change of regime in Ukraine would no longer be even beneficial for Russia.
– Russia has been negotiating with Zelensky for years on the situation in the Donbass region and they have been able to conclude mutually beneficial relief agreements. If Zelenskyi were replaced, there would be no guarantee who would replace him. Could we negotiate concessions with him again, researcher Ilmari Käihkö wonders.
Russia aims to neutralize Ukraine
Specialist Researcher at the National Defense College, Lieutenant Colonel Pentti Forsström does not consider it likely that Russia will be able to make a coup in Ukraine. Kiev is not on its knees, and Ukraine continues to resist.
– The ruler set by Russia would have no legitimacy, it would not bear any fruit.
Military science experts see Russia now primarily seeking to “neutralize” Ukraine.
This would mean, among other things, the disarmament of the country and guarantees that Ukraine will not join international organizations such as NATO or the European Union.
Fighting Ukraine’s NATO membership and portraying the Western threat has been a narrative to the home audience rather than a real threat to Putin, says the leader. Jukka Savolainen From the Hybrid Competence Center Vulnerabilities and Resilience Network.
– The whole security threat from the West is an invented goal. It is needed to justify to the Russians that the country is under threat, an authoritarian leader is needed.
The real threat is the emerging democracy in neighboring countries.
Staying outside NATO and the EU and the consequent possibility of keeping Ukraine in chaos would therefore be the ultimate goal of the negotiations.
Putin holds on to Crimea
Ilmari Käihkö, a researcher at the Swedish National Defense College, and Pentti Forsström, a specialist researcher at the Finnish National Defense College, believe that Putin will also demand recognition of the Crimean peninsula and the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent or part of Russia.
According to Käihkö, the areas could be recognized either within the 2015 borders or wider. The decision would be painful for Ukraine but not unacceptable if there is a continuation of a violent war in the second horizontal cup.
Crimea is probably what Putin will stick to the most, Jukka Savolainen estimates.
– The weaker Russia is in the negotiations, the closer we get to a situation where Russia wants to hold on to Crimea anyway.
Crimea may also be one of the main causes of the war. The illegal annexation of Crimea to Russia, which has lasted for eight years, can only become legal in practice if it is agreed in a peace agreement.
– Before that, there must be such a war that the other party agrees to write a peace agreement, Savolainen says.
According to the Blue Flower Island, regional transfers would be very difficult for the Ukrainian people to accept. The Ukrainian government cannot make decisions that its people will not accept.
– The sacrifices of the Ukrainian people have been extreme. It is likely that it will not give its support to Putin’s conquest.
On the other hand, the Crimea and the stubble Donbas have in fact been out of control of Kiev and Ukraine has had to live with it.
The island considers it likely that Russia will bring to the negotiating table the securing of some kind of land corridor or maintenance infrastructure for Crimea, possibly north of the Azov Sea. For it could ensure the security of supply of Crimea.
Belarus and Crimea may be enough to preserve the face
It is also about the prestige of leaders.
If Russia and Ukraine were to reach an agreement, the conditions would have to be such that both Putin and Zelenskyi would keep their faces.
– They both need to be able to go home head on and say that the war was terrible, but we won these certain things, Käihkö describes.
However, Putin’s entire operation will not take place in Ukraine alone, Jukka Savolainen reminds.
In addition to Ukraine, Belarus is one of the important states in Putin’s “mother Russia” trio, the Rus narrative. According to Savolainen, Russia has already achieved a significant victory in Belarus, ie a considerably deepened state union.
While Europe’s attention has drawn to Ukraine, the constitutional amendment to Belarus sealed the fact that Russia can bring its nuclear war to Belarus, deep on the side of Europe.
– Bringing the people of Belarus under Russian control is already a victory for Putin.
For some reason, Belarus launched a massive hybrid operation against the EU last year, machining asylum seekers to the EU. As a result, no one opposed Russia as it tightened its grip on the country.
– If Putin can also tell the home audience that “I just took over the 20 million people of Belarus and ensured the stability of Crimea in Russia,” then he is the winner in the country, Savolainen says.
However, an agreement is not in sight.
– At the moment, the situation does not hurt either party so much that it should end. Ukraine is too small to defeat Russia, but by prolonging the war, it can frustrate it so that Russian decision-makers realize the price is too high, Ilmari Käihkö says, referring to harsh sanctions on Russia, for example.
According to Pentti Forsström, a specialist researcher at the National Defense University, time is at war with Russia. He has not seen a significant change in military intensity on the Russian side.
– The longer the situation lasts, the more difficult the situation in Russia will become. The question is whether any additional power is available in Russia. There has been talk of troops coming from Syria and the Far East, but will there be any and what will they mean then. Russia does not have buns well in the oven.
A cautionary example of Mariupol?
According to Käihkö, a docent in military sciences, Russia’s original war strategy was based on a huge miscalculation: Russia believed that the Ukrainian army would not resist significantly, and that Ukrainians were neutral or even supportive of the change of power.
According to the researcher, the recent increase in violence indicates a clear change in Russia’s strategy.
He sees that at first Russia did not want to provoke much resistance among the Ukrainians, so attacks on military targets were made more carefully. The violence was more moderate.
According to Käihko, Russia realized its misjudgment after a few days after noticing Ukraine’s strong defense. After that, more civilian targets, such as hospitals, industrial facilities, infrastructure, and residential buildings, began to strike.
– It seems that the destruction of the city of Mariupol is being set as a warning example elsewhere. It’s terrorizing civilians, Käihkö describes.
Researcher: Russia will suffer for a long time
Pentti Forsström, a specialist researcher at the National Defense University, describes Russia as having shot himself in both legs. It is now at a stalemate in many directions, both militarily and economically.
Forsström believes that relations between Ukraine and Russia have been severed. According to the researcher, the future of Russia does not look bright anyway.
– It will remain a military power with nuclear weapons, but there is nothing else. Who will Russia trade with in the future? It will be extremely difficult in terms of investment and exports. Russia can no longer dictate what it wants to sell and at what price.