“France supports those who believe in France, not others,” asserts, somewhat empathetically, the President of the Republic in his interview with L’Express. The message, addressed to Patrick Pouyanné, is clear: Emmanuel Macron takes a dim view of the main listing project in New York studied by the CEO of the oil group and TotalEnergies has every interest in remaining in his native country. However, “from TotalEnergies’ point of view, it is a rational choice in the long term, both for the company and its stakeholders”, bluntly states the economic advisor of Pictet AM Christopher Dembik, recalling that other French companies did it before him, like Criteo, Sequans Communication and Flamel Technologies.
“This does not bode well for the transfer of the head office. That of Criteo is still in Paris, for example, he adds. TotalEnergies will remain a French company, will continue to contribute fiscally to the French budget (200 million euros in 2023 ) and, as such, should benefit from State support in its activities in France and abroad, like any other French company.
Three good reasons
A former investment banker, the head of state knows how demanding the American stock market is. To the point of warning the company’s management. “When […] we know the risks of litigation when we are listed in the United States, I think that we should look twice.” Nevertheless, Patrick Pouyanné’s group would undoubtedly have a card to play by going into exile. “Generally, the transfer of listing meets one or more of the following objectives: to develop in the American market, to find listed comparables and therefore potentially increase the valuation, to find analysts and investors with knowledge and an appetite for the sector”, underlines Christopher Dembik. TotalEnergies ticks all these boxes.
On the commercial level, the integration of the solar activities of the American SunPower in 2022 opens up a field of opportunities across the Atlantic. Regarding the attractiveness of investors for the stock, the dynamic is clearly more favorable among American institutional investors. Europeans, on the contrary, are letting go, forced by regulations which require them to take environmental and social criteria into account in their investment decisions. Finally, by listing on Wall Street, TotalEnergies can dream of a better stock market valuation. “Its American competitors, like Chevron and ExxonMobil, have a capitalization two to three times greater. And the differences in financial results and energy production are not enough to explain this difference. Across the Atlantic, the creation of value in energy, whether green or fossil, is better integrated into share prices than in France”, underlines the economist.
One thing is certain, if the arbitration of Patrick Pouyanné and his board of directors ends in favor of the United States, the attractiveness of Paris will take a hit. Especially since the tricolor place is already struggling to attract new blood. Many companies “no longer choose the stock market to finance themselves, they prefer to resort to private equity, rich in cash. There are more than 8,200 billion dollars in these funds, twice as much as in 2018 And those who nevertheless choose the Stock Exchange more often opt for London – in particular the Aquis, the compartment dedicated to growth companies – than for the Continental Stock Exchanges. The reception there is more favorable, there is a. greater interest in new technologies, looser regulation, a broader investor base and more capital,” lists Christopher Dembik.
We can therefore especially regret that Paris does not have the capacity to retain its champions. And nothing says that the law on attractiveness under discussion in Parliament, which plans in particular to develop shares with multiple voting rights and to facilitate investment by private equity funds in listed companies, is enough to reverse the movement. .
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