Of all the presidential or legislative votes in the 2024 “super election year” – around 70 countries and more than 1 in 2 Earthlings affected – the American election, on November 8, will have the most serious consequences. Donald Trump could return to the White House in a country exhausted by years of right-left antagonism. The frustration of the Democratic camp would be exacerbated by the fact that, as in 2016, Trump would come to power without necessarily having won the popular vote, due to the particularity of the American electoral system. With a head of state being prosecuted (for incitement to insurrection in Washington, attempted electoral fraud in Georgia, concealment of documents in Florida and payment of bribes to a porn actress in New York), the prestige of the country would be diminished.
But what would Trump’s plan be? First, continue to monopolize media attention out of narcissistic need. Then, fight against immigration, close the Mexican border and undoubtedly organize the country’s withdrawal into itself, according to the “America First” doctrine. Internationally, the candidate has already made it known – without specifying how – that he would “end the war in Ukraine in twenty-four hours”.
“Trump will tell Putin to stop the fighting…”
“Trump could use his power to slow down or even stop the support approved by Congress for Ukraine, explains Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, of the German Marshall Fund, close to the Biden administration. He would convene a meeting in the first days of his presidency bilateral agreement with Putin to conclude a ceasefire freezing the conflict, without involving kyiv or the Europeans.” A tragedy for Ukraine, which would see the annexation of its territories to the east and south ratified, and would remain under threat from its neighbor. A Republican advisor, who is close to the ex-president’s entourage, adds: “Trump will tell Putin to stop the fighting and will threaten him, if he refuses, to ask the Saudis to flood the world market with oil in order to bring down crude oil prices, which would make Putin’s life impossible.”
No one can predict whether such a scenario will occur. In a year, the military situation in Ukraine will have evolved. “If, by then, the Russian army gains ground, then Putin, sensing victory near, could refuse any negotiations and push his advantage,” estimates conservative geostrategist James Arnold. Donald Trump could also threaten to leave NATO. A disaster scenario for the Europeans, who, with insufficient arms stocks, would find themselves in a worrying face-to-face with Russia.
The Republican could also demand that Europeans increase their defense capabilities… by purchasing American weapons. “Don’t forget that Trump is a follower of the “madman theory” dear to Richard Nixon,” continues James Arnold. He will therefore let the Russians, the Europeans, the Chinese, the Iranians and even the Venezuelans understand that he is capable of anything and everything. According to Republican strategists, this is the best way to bring stability to the world. Which would be the least worst scenario.