The executive is backing down: the controversial unemployment insurance reform has been suspended by the government. But the current rules have only been extended for one month, plunging the unemployment benefit system into a completely unprecedented situation. What can happen now? The Express make the point.
Why did the government decide to suspend the reform?
On the evening of the first round, Sunday, June 30, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal decided to “suspend the implementation of the unemployment insurance reform”, which had been described as “essential” in mid-June by President Emmanuel Macron. This reform, which provided for a new tightening of the compensation rules on December 1, has not been buried but could “be the subject of adjustments, discussions between republican forces”, according to Gabriel Attal’s entourage. In other words, Matignon is giving the left the possibility of making amendments on this subject.
This backpedaling, welcomed on the left as well as at the RN, was presented as a “first act” of the Prime Minister “in the spirit of future majorities of projects and ideas”, at the end of the legislative elections. While the presidential coalition only came in third place in the first round of the legislative elections, the government seems to want to appease a more left wing with a view to a union “of republican forces” against the extreme right.
For its part, the CFDT considers that the extension of the current rules amounts to an “abandonment” of an “unfair reform, which aimed to achieve enormous savings on the backs of job seekers alone”, according to a press release. For Michel Beaugas (FO). Tuesday, July 2, Marylise Léon, national secretary of the CFDT, added to the microphone of FranceInfo : “Promulgating this new reform would have been a democratic provocation.” Same story from Cyril Charnier (CFTC): “It’s a bad reform. It should have been cancelled, period.”
What are the immediate consequences for the unemployed?
For now, status quo. In order to allow the unemployed to continue receiving benefits, the government published a “joint decree” on Monday, June 30, which extends the current rules until July 31. Why only extend for one month? It is undoubtedly linked to “significant tensions within the government,” believes Denis Gravouil, the CGT negotiator on unemployment insurance.
He notes in particular that Bruno Le Maire is clinging “like a mussel on a rock to this decree”, while the Minister of the Economy reaffirmed on Monday his conviction that it was necessary to “continue the reform”. The one-month joint decree, “it’s ridiculous”, reacted François Hommeril of the CFE-CGC. “We will be in the middle of the Olympic Games! […] “This speaks volumes about the lack of preparation and amateurism of this affair,” he believes.
How can we envisage the future in the medium term?
LWill the government wait any longer before launching its unemployment insurance reform? At the very least, “there will be an extension (of the current conditions, Editor’s note) between August 1 and November 30 because for operational reasons, France Travail is not in a position to change the rules before December 1,” observes Denis Gravouil. But after that? “The big question is what happens from December 1? […] “There is a sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the unemployed,” he said.
“A new government can ask us to reopen negotiations” on the basis of a new “framework letter”, notes Michel Beaugas. But it takes time, so it will be necessary to “extend the decree of joining again”, even if legally, “it has been a little shaky for a while”. According to him, “we are leaving the 2.5 million job seekers who are compensated in uncertainty”.
“What we could imagine being done by the end of July, in one month, is an action plan” to reopen negotiations between social partners in September, says Eric Chevée, of the Confederation of SMEs. For the Medef this reform “was necessary” and “whatever happens and in one way or another, we will have to come back to it”, its negotiator Hubert Mongon told AFP.
What will happen if the RN wins an absolute majority?
During the election campaign, the National Rally (RN) pledged to reverse this reform. If it has an absolute majority on Sunday evening, it will have the power to change the rules as it wishes. “The social partners will have to negotiate and make proposals,” outgoing RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy told AFP on Monday. However, from the RN, “we have not heard any plans for unemployment insurance, so we don’t know,” notes Michel Beaugas for FO. “We cannot trust them given that each time they voted against the unemployed, (for) all the tougher measures that led to the 2023 decree,” the previous reform, notes Denis Gravouil.