Limit the presidential office to two terms? A “disastrous piece of bullshit,” Emmanuel Macron retorted to Jordan Bardella in front of all the leaders of the opposition parties gathered in Saint-Denis last September. But above all, a constitutional requirement which is unlikely to fall by 2027. Here then is this young head of state forced to give up on a third presidential election. Before 2032.
But then, what to do in the meantime? Which alternative to the primary function should you choose? “I will probably do something completely different,” evaded the person last September during an official trip to Kazakhstan. But as the disastrous deadline draws nearer, the vision becomes clearer. In an interview given to the Le Crayon media group and broadcast this Tuesday, June 4, Emmanuel Macron assures him: he will continue to work for Europe and for France.
What is hidden in this enigmatic phrase, which resembles a traditional warning from each president at the end of his reign: “You will have to continue to do with me”? With political scientists and specialists from the European Union, L’Express took stock of the different doors that will open to Emmanuel Macron at the end of his second term.
1/ A place among the top jobs in the EU
Little known or even obscure to the general public, “top jobs” are the highest positions of responsibility within the European Union. There are five of them: the Presidency of the European Parliament, the Presidency of the European Commission, the Presidency of the European Council, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and finally, the Presidency of the Central bank, currently occupied by Nicolas Sarkozy’s former Minister of the Economy, Christine Lagarde.
They are highly coveted, and their distribution is generally the source of heated disputes. And for good reason, nothing is simple when it comes to reconciling national interests and European partisan life – European political parties having no embodied representation at the national level. If to be appointed, the candidates must be validated by the European Parliament, it is indeed the European Council made up of heads of state or government, which submits the names of personalities approached for these famous “top jobs” for which “the “The current French president has all the qualities”, underlines Alberto Alemanno, political scientist and professor of law at HEC Paris.
Problem, Emmanuel Macron himself recalled during his visit to Germany at the end of May, “the bad wind” of the far right and illiberalism is blowing across the Old Continent. And could make the extent of support for a candidacy from the champion of “at the same time” increasingly uncertain. Added to this is the loss of influence of the liberals in Brussels. For Alberto Alemanno: “The liberal family being smaller than the social democrats or that of the right to come, it could be difficult to maintain a force”, and thus to impose a candidate, was he the former head of ‘French State.
2/ A “VGE”-style scenario
If a place in the Commission seems difficult to find, why not sit in the European Parliament? Less likely, the “master of the clocks” according to the established formula, not being the type to be satisfied with a simple position of deputy, he who never had an elective function before 2017. But not incongruous for all that. After all, didn’t Valéry Giscard d’Estaing lead the UDF-RPR union list which came first in the 1989 European elections, eight years after leaving the Château? Didn’t he also chair the liberal group in Strasbourg?
Especially since, regarding Europe, the twinship of the two men, separated by half a century, is not left out. Tireless Europeanists, both have demonstrated their attachment to the European project. Both presented themselves, during their presidency, as leading players in European construction and integration.
In the wake of “VGE”, Emmanuel Macron could thus attempt an electoral adventure, by taking the head of a list bringing together the centrist-liberals in the European elections of 2029. In the event of victory, his CV as former head of state would be both a boost and a handicap. “He will necessarily try to take the lead of this group, but his success will depend on the support or not of his own political family, but also on the state of the political landscape of 2029”, analyzes the political scientist Bruno Cauvrai, researcher at the CNRS and the Cévipof.
3/ In the wake of Jacques Delors
Another option in the House of Twenty-Seven: “Become a personality who counts in the debate of ideas on the future of the Union and who continues to reflect on its integration”, suggests Bruno Cauvrai. For example, by creating a Think tank dedicated to thinking about community issues. Like the former President of the European Commission, Jacques Delors, who gave birth to the Jacques Delors Institute, formerly called “Notre Europe”. A formula cherished by the current President of the Republic.
In addition, “Emmanuel Macron would be very well placed to be entrusted with an important mission on the European institutional future,” believes Bruno Cautres. A possibility which also joins the path of his predecessor, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. Twenty-one years after his defeat against François Mitterand, the “king of communications” was appointed to co-chair alongside former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato the convention responsible for submitting a draft Constitution to the institutions European.
4/ Become the face of an international organization
Emmanuel Macron could also be snatched up by something bigger. Join an international organization? NATO, the United Nations, or even the International Monetary Fund… The range of choices is not overwhelming, but sufficient for a former president in search of international destiny. And several recent examples demonstrate that experience of power is a sought-after asset.
Former Austrian and South Korean foreign ministers Kurt Waldheim and Ban Ki-moon became secretary-general of the United Nations. As did the president of Peru, Javier Pérez Cuéllars. However, “there have been many former heads of government whose political careers ended while they were still young, who attempted to join major international institutions, but who never succeeded in “impose”, nuance Alberto Alemanno.
Especially since his status as former president of a great power could well put obstacles in his way. And for good reason, during his two mandates, Emmanuel Macron took positions which alienated some of the members working within international organizations. “He was one of those who took some of the hardest positions against Vladimir Putin on the subject of the war in Ukraine,” notes Bruno Cauvrai, who also points out the astonishment aroused by his proposal to create an international force to eradicate the Hamas in October 2023.
5/ Resume a career in the private sector
Ultimately, why not consider a return to basics? Nothing excludes Emmanuel Macron from returning to his private career, abandoned to join the general secretariat of the Elysée in 2012. For the political scientist and researcher at Cevipof, Luc Rouban, the head of state could indeed be tempted to enter a “large private or financial company”. More challenging perhaps, more rewarding no doubt, “but less glorious for sure”, smiles Alberto Alemanno.
Reason why, “the former presidents who resumed activities in the private sector all ended up trying their luck again in politics,” points out Bruno Cautres. But besides, what about a return to the Franco-French political arena? What if Emmanuel Macron only had to wait patiently until 2032, come forward to try to sign a new five-year lease at the Elysée? “To end up like Nicolas Sarkozy, and make a fool of yourself by coming third in the right-wing primary?” mocks a caped profile. No, no chance, “Emmanuel Macron is better than that”…
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