Can Emmanuel Macron’s resignation resolve the current political crisis? Elements of explanation.
The fall of the Barnier government highlighted the extent of the institutional crisis that France is going through. As there is no majority in the Assembly and since no political force from the three blocs (NFP – Macronist Base – LR – RN) wants to work in a government coalition, it is impossible for a Prime Minister, whoever he is , to appear legitimate to a majority of deputies. Certainly, this can obtain tacit support from part of the opposition, as we saw with the RN group having chosen not to censor Michel Barnier in advance, but this assembly is by nature ephemeral.
The Barnier experiment will have lasted three months and will have pushed the tenant of Matignon to an unprecedented deference for the extreme right. In vain. And now ? How to get out of the impasse? The question of Emmanuel Macron’s resignation is not – or is no longer – a Pavlovian demand of certain frustrated opponents. The hypothesis is now considered very seriously by political figures who are neither left nor far right. “There is only one solution, it is a new presidential election,” insists LR Jean-François Copé on the television sets.
Marine Le Pen made a public statement in the room of the 4 columns of the National Assembly on December 2 after the censorship: the president of the RN deputies considered in front of the press that Emmanuel Macron had only three solutions: dissolution ( that he can only decide from June), a reshuffle (which according to her would be of no use) and his own resignation. Understand whoever wants.
But in reality we must take the question of the president’s resignation out of a partisan or activist prism. It is now increasingly posed on an institutional level, with everyone looking for a way to once again ensure stability in the country. “Who is at the origin of the political chaos? It was the President of the Republic when he carried out this dissolution that even his own friends did not understand,” Charles asked on November 27 de Courson, general budget rapporteur, and executive of the Liot parliamentary group, although represented in the Barnier government.
A presidential election in 2025?
But can the resignation of the head of state really open a new chapter? We must first keep in mind that nothing obliges him to end his mandate before May 2027. He has even made it known several times that he would not resign, considering himself a guarantor of the stability of the institutions. The head of state also believes that while Europe faces the war in Ukraine and increasingly intense international threats, France’s voice could be weakened if the presidency of the Republic were dismissed. .
To the press who openly asked him the question of his departure from the Elysée, while the president was traveling to Saudi Arabia this week, he replied: “It makes no sense. height to say these things if I am before you it is because I have been elected twice by the French people.
Above all, the resignation of the president will in no way change the composition of the National Assembly, which cannot be dissolved before the summer of 2025. At the Elysée, those close to the president repeatedly repeat that a departure of Emmanuel Macron would not provide a solution. Since the elected representatives of the Assembly are indestructible until at least mid-July, they decide who does not govern – and by default, therefore, who governs. LFI elected officials will censor any government that does not come from the NFP. Marine Le Pen and her group could be satisfied with a new Prime Minister who would promise them a reform establishing proportional representation in legislative elections and an Immigration law. The equation is not out of reach for the head of state.
What if that’s not enough? Or if a government is appointed but only lasts a few weeks? Then the president’s legitimacy capital will be greatly impacted, he will be perceived as the source of this endless crisis. If Emmanuel Macron changes his mind and decides to resign, he will then open a sequence that could bring clarity: the new elected president will be able to claim the victory of universal suffrage and the impetus of the vote could well weaken the tenacity of the deputies, to compose a new coalition.
If Emmanuel Macron resigns, it seems rather logical that he waits until the beginning of 2025. The President of the Senate would be responsible for the interim while awaiting the organization of a new presidential election. This must be organized “at least twenty days and at most fifty days after the opening of the vacancy or the declaration of the definitive nature of the impediment”. For example, if he resigns on January 20, on January 1er tour could take place no earlier than February 11. On the other hand, the 2e tour could not take place later than March 11.
3:45 p.m. – A majority of French people in favor of Emmanuel Macron resigning
54% of French people want the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron and an early presidential election from 2025, according to a survey carried out for Le Point by the Cluster17 institute. The study highlights the fact that the voters most in the center are the most widely opposed to the departure of the president: 78% of PS voters, 69% of LR voters and 96% of Renaissance voters want Emmanuel Macron to stay in his post until at the end of his mandate. The poll also shows that the Barnier government’s censorship divides the French: 47% say they are in favor of this decision compared to 41% who are opposed to it.
04/12/24 – 16:41 – Jordan Bardella does not call on the president to resign
Jordan Bardella, interviewed this Wednesday on France Inter, said he was “respectful” of the institutions of the Fifth Republic and the institutions. “Emmanuel Macron was elected for a period of two five years and there is no reason as we speak for the President of the Republic to leave.” Remember that Marine Le Pen did not call for her departure, but still suggested that her resignation would be a way out of the crisis facing the country. Le Monde also revealed this Wednesday that the boss of the RN group and leader of the extreme did not pass any instructions to elected officials, each being free to give their feelings about the presence of Emmanuel Macron at the Elysée.
03/12/24 – 12:12 – Jean-Luc Mélenchon calls on Emmanuel Macron to resign
“Since the country did not want to give a majority to Emmanuel Macron’s party, since the National Assembly did not give its confidence to the government he appointed, since there is no majority for adopt your budget, then, […] the president must resign”, wrote the leader of La France insoumise on his blog, in a long comment on the 49.3 used by Michel Barnier and on the motion of censure which will be voted on – barring any surprises – this Wednesday. “We must that the president resigns so that we can vote, that the president resigns because the only sovereign in this country is the people. “Let the president resign because we have to decide between the major options presented to us,” he further pleads. “How many more does Michel Barnier intend to use it before drawing the necessary conclusions and assume personal responsibilities?” he asks?
02/12/24 – 3:50 p.m. – “Macron will never resign”
A minister interviewed by Le Parisienwants to believe that even if the government falls with censorship, the head of state will not give up his apron. “Macron will never resign. He is thinking about the mark he will leave in history. He will appoint a Barnier 2, 3, 4 or 5 government if necessary, will dissolve the Assembly again in September if he necessary. But he will want to be able to say: I am the last bastion of the stability of the institutions,” he anticipates.
28/11/24 – 11:54 – For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “Macron’s departure is the solution to end the crisis created by him”
In a long text published this Thursday, November 28 on his website, Jean-Luc Mélenchon considers that the resignation of Emmanuel Macron is now inevitable. “A slope has now been taken. In people’s minds not only is Macron’s departure the solution to ending the crisis created by him. But there is also the certainty of seeing the latter reduced to total impotence because he has not no more credit or political influence either in France or in the world”, writes the leader of La France insoumise, who insists: “Barring any further unforeseen events, this slope is irreversible. The disbandment of what remains of the ‘presidential camp’ will therefore continue. ’emphasize. It will make everything worse as it decomposes according to a constant law of this type of situation.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon is delighted that his resignation is now being demanded by voices from the left, from the extreme right, but also from the ranks of the right and the center, with the declarations of De Courson and Copé.