Has Benyamin Netanyahu’s plane got lost on the road to the White House? On Sunday, the Israeli Prime Minister took thirteen hours and thirty minutes to get from Tel Aviv to Washington, “a significantly longer flight time than a lambda commercial flight”, Note Israeli journalist Noga Tarnopolsky on X. Caution, “Bibi” undoubtedly wanted to avoid the air spaces of countries likely to execute the arrest warrant of the International Criminal Court issued against him. Perhaps he also took the time to think about the historical dilemmas that he must resolve in the coming hours …
Tuesday, February 4, Benyamin Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader received by Donald Trump during his second term. A sign of friendship according to Bibi, a summons by the boss according to his opponents. Since his re-election in November, the republican billionaire has had a geopolitical obsession: the truce at all costs in the Middle East, to advance his major plans in the region. He twisted the arm of Netanyahu to obtain the ceasefire in Lebanon, then in Gaza, even before it entered. Next steps: a “deal” Saudi-Israel Arabia and an agreement with Iran. Enough to make his relatives whisper his ambitions for the next Nobel Peace Prize.
Now at the helm, the New York magnate intends to maintain calm. “Trump’s objectives are clear and pragmatic, underlines Ksenia Svetlova, specialist in the Middle East, In a note for the Chatham House. His vision for the Middle East revolves around two strategic goals: sign a global agreement with Saudi Arabia on the model of Abraham agreements [NDLR : qui ont normalisé les relations entre Israël et plusieurs pays arabes en 2020] And establish a Qatari gas route to Europe, including Syria. These two objectives represent the kind of major economic successes that Trump wants to achieve during his second mandate, but he can only succeed in the case of regional stability and war stop in Gaza. “Which necessarily complicates Netanyahu’s life .
For Netanyahu, the anger of the far right or the anger of Trump
If the American president wants peace, the allies of the Israeli Prime Minister only want war. His Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, left the government to protest against the truce in Gaza. Now, his Minister of Finance, Colon Bezalel Smotrich, threatens to do the same if Tsahal does not take up the bombings in the Gaza Strip. His departure would risk dropping the Netanyahu government and provoking new delicate elections for the Prime Minister.
Netanyahu therefore has a choice to make: apply the ceasefire agreement with Hamas to finally obtain the release of all hostages and hope to normalize the relations of Israel with its neighbors of the Middle East, or resume war In the Palestinian enclave, already destroyed at more than 80 %, to keep his government alive until 2026. In short, risking the anger of his far -right allies or Trump’s anger. “The ceasefire in Gaza revives many options for the future,” said Amélie Ferey, responsible for the defense research laboratory at IFRI. It is the first time for a very long time that different ways have been possible in The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “
To maintain peace in Gaza, negotiations are already resuming. Israel and Hamas must agree on phase 2 of the agreement, which must come into force 42 days after the start of the truce, in early March. “Trump’s approach was decisive to conclude the deal at first, it must remain involved as close as possible to the negotiations to ensure that the agreement is holding,” judges Ksenia Svetlova. The American special envoy on the file, the real estate contractor Steve Witkoff, also went around the actors of the Middle East last week, ranging from the Netanyahu office in Jerusalem to the “Place des Otages” Tel Aviv, via the Gaza Strip. In a very Trumpian franchise, He said That it “is almost nothing left of Gaza” and that it will take “ten to fifteen” to rebuild.
Threats against Palestinians: Trump’s art of deal?
Negotiations on phase 2 of the ceasefire promise to be particularly attempted. Israel requires the release of all hostages and the establishment of a transitional authority that is rid of Hamas. Opposite, the terrorist organization demands the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and the complete departure of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. “Finding an agreement looks exceptionally difficult, advances Andrew Fox, former member of the British special forces and specialist in the Middle East at the Henry Jackson Society. This is up to Hamas to accept to be replaced at the head of the band From Gaza, you must therefore activate all possible levers to make it bend. ” It is here that “the art of deal” by Donald Trump comes into play.
“We are talking about a million and a half people [à déplacer] Then we clean the whole thing. “In January, the American president repeated, twice, his intention to have the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip in the surrounding Arab countries, in this case Egypt and Jordan, emigrated, in this case, temporarily or in the long term. Arabs. “These are Trump’s maximalist negotiations, believes to know Andrew Fox, invited to Paris by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation in late January. It is his way of negotiating, by advancing a huge request then by finding an agreement halfway. He says to Hamas: if you refuse our proposal for phase 2 of the agreement, then we will all expel you! “
Trump’s words also gave wages to the Israeli far right, likely to bring down Netanyahu but also to burn the region. After having canceled the sanctions taken by the Biden administration against the settlers of the West Bank and restored the delivery of the bombs of almost 1000 kg to TSAhal, the American president sponsors the most radical Israelis. He knows that he will soon be convincing them to make concessions to the Palestinians, in the hope of leading to an agreement with Saudi Arabia of Mohammed bin Salmane. “The key for the future of the Palestinians is based on negotiations between Trump and MBS, points out Amélie Ferey. But the problem lies within Israeli society and its political dynamics: even if Netanyahu accepts peace, how will the movement react settlers? [l’ancien ministre de la Sécurité nationale] Ben Gvir and the tensions are huge. “
As soon as the ceasefire is entry into force in Gaza, the West Bank has boiled, with anti-terrorist operations carried out by TSAhal and on the other, violence committed by Israeli colonists against Palestinian villages. The latter promise to envenue the situation if phase 2 of the agreement with Hamas comes into force in the coming weeks. Bezalel Smotrich, he expressed his ambitions for the future: “Look at Gaza, she is destroyed, uninhabitable, and she will remain so.” To see who, of his minister or Trump, Netanyahou will listen to last.
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