SET (SET). The presidential majority group Ensemble failed to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly after the legislative elections. This failure raises many questions about Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term.
Search for legislative results and candidates near you
[Mis à jour le 20 juin 2022 à 08h48] 245 is the number of seats finally obtained on Sunday evening at the end of the second round of the legislative elections by the Together coalition formed around Emmanuel Macron to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. It took 289 for that and this failure sounds like a cruel disavowal for the President of the Republic less than two months after his re-election but also for many tenors of Macronie. The staff of the former LREM (called to become Renaissance in the coming weeks) finds itself beheaded of two of its major leaders, Richard Ferrand and Christophe Castaner, both beaten dryly and who will leave the National Assembly. Emmanuel Macron loses there a unifying element for his majority and symbolic figure of Macronie with his status as President of the National Assembly but also his group president in the Assembly with Christophe Castaner, his former Minister of the Interior and loyal among the faithful.
Therefore, a question arises when reading the results: how to manage to govern despite everything? The boat France is proving to be very difficult to steer with a tenuous course to be found between support to be retained from the Modem and Horizons allies, the new party formed by Edouard Philippe and the need to expand, probably to the right and the 61 deputies LR. Unless Together intends to manage to explode in flight the Nupes and its alloy of deputies LFI, PS, EELV and PC. Should we already reshuffle massively, or even find a new Prime Minister while Elisabeth Borne, comforted despite everything by her victory in Calvados, would struggle to convince within the majority? A real poker game is coming and this time, Emmanuel Macron does not seem to have all the cards to take control. The challenge is immense.
Emmanuel Macron and Together! obtain a relative majority in the National Assembly during this second round of the legislative election with 245 seats according to the Ministry of the Interior. That is enough to make Together! the first group in the National Assembly but it is clearly insufficient to govern alone and impose the tempo in the National Assembly. Already in the first round of legislative elections 2022, Sunday, June 12, the presidential majority Together! had obtained 25.75% of the votes cast, or 5,857,561 votes, according to the Ministry of the Interior, barely more than the Nupes credited with 25.66% while the RN obtained 18.68%. Never had a post-presidential legislative election been so close.
From the start of the day on Sunday, early trends gave a glimpse of the tough day ahead. The first results from Overseas on Sunday morning gave birth to an embarrassing setback for Together! and a first blow for the government: Justine Benin, appointed Secretary of State for the Sea in the new government of Elisabeth Borne was beaten in Guadeloupe. She should therefore leave the government, according to the rule set by the executive before these legislative elections. In Guyana, Lénaïck Adam, outgoing LREM deputy in the 2nd constituency of Guyana, was also beaten by Davy Rimane, supported by LFI. Same thing in Polynesia where the candidate of the Nupes Tematai Le Gayic has made up for his heavy delay to win and become the youngest elected in the Assembly. Small consolation for Together! in New Caledonia with two elected deputies: Philippe Dunoyer and Nicolas Metzdorf… It was before the slap felt at the announcement of the results at 8 p.m. with an absolute majority lost, 3 ministers beaten (Justine Benin therefore but also Brigitte Bourguignon and Amélie de Montchalin) and young ceded fiefs.
How will this relative majority be organised? Before 2e round of the legislative elections, the various parties that make up the Together coalition had shown public unity “to show that we have the same sense of responsibility”, as François Bayrou declared alongside Edouard Philippe during a public meeting Wednesday, June 15. The objective: to allow Emmanuel Macron to thwart the forecasts and to have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, behind the scenes, rivalries are raging on many levels and the result obtained this Sunday evening will no doubt only rekindle tensions.
♦ LREM more fragile in the 2022 legislative elections than in 2017
First, it should be noted that Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche, is no longer as powerful as when it emerged in 2016, to propel the then ex-Minister of the Economy at the Elysee. At the end of the legislative elections of 2017, the President of the Republic had 314 deputies stamped LREM and 47 for his ally of the MoDem. Then splits gradually took place, sometimes towards the center-left with the “Territory of Progress” party of Minister Olivier Dussopt, sometimes towards the center-right with the Agir party of Franck Riester then Horizons of Edouard Philippe. So many components that the Head of State had then under his control but which have since taken their political independence, while keeping their loyalty to the President of the Republic. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own. This time it will be even worse with 245 deputies for the Ensemble camp, but only around 160 from LREM. The allies will therefore play a significant role…
♦ Edouard Philippe and François Bayrou each seek to play a pivotal role in the Together coalition
A loyalty retained for the presidential election and the legislative elections, all the dissident political families of La République en Marche having supported Emmanuel Macron for these two elections. However, the Head of State had to come to terms with these new imposed allies to avoid having too many opponents of the same current (or almost) in the constituencies. Consequently, if 400 constituencies had been granted to LREM candidates, 110 were granted to representatives of the MoDem and 58 for Horizons.
The coalition is not without risk, however, especially in relation to Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister is always shown to be loyal to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathetic rating (favorite political personality of the French), grant him both the status of ally and dissident of weight in the event of disagreement. Because Emmanuel Macron did not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates, far from it. Of the 245 seats for Together!, LREM would only have 160 deputies so that the political force of its ex-tenant of Matignon who would glean around 30 deputies will only be reinforced. François Bayrou could also do the same with his 40 MoDem deputies to tip the balance.
♦ Tensions related to the negotiations to be conducted in this relative majority?
The structure of the presidential camp, made up of several political branches, could also see some cracks appear quickly in the absence of an absolute majority. Indeed, differences within Ensemble cannot be ruled out on the choice of the political family(ies) with whom the government could discuss to pass its laws. The macronist camp being made up of personalities from the left, starting with Elisabeth Borne, but also Richard Ferrand, Olivier Véran, Christophe Castaner or Olivier Dussopt, as well as from the right, such as Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe or even Pierre-Yves Bournazel, objections and tensions over the content of the negotiations to be conducted could break out, not without causing some turmoil within the coalition.
♦ The 2027 presidential election already in the sights, who will succeed Macron?
The maneuvers carried out to help Emmanuel Macron, while detaching themselves from it, were not launched without a second thought by Edouard Philippe or even François Bayrou. In sight, already, the presidential election of 2027, in which the President of the Republic will not be able to represent himself. What open the field of possibilities on the profile of his successor. A battle to take the reins of La République en Marche will inexorably begin, while the leaders of the allied parties will inevitably seek to gather a majority behind their project. Hostilities which could not be without consequence on the legislative work and considerably weaken the coalition of deputies behind Emmanuel Macron.