The new Corona virus variant, first detected in South Africa, caused concern worldwide. Some countries quickly began to introduce travel restrictions. Is the new variant, which the World Health Organization has not yet named, more dangerous than Delta? Scientists are searching for the answer to this question
What is the newly detected Covid-19 variant in South Africa?
South African scientists have identified a new variant of the Corona virus this week, which they say is behind the recent spike in COVID-19 infections in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng. It’s unclear where the new variant actually originated, but it was first detected by scientists in South Africa and has been seen in travelers to Belgium, Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.
While experts are still trying to determine whether the new variant, called B.1.1.529, is really responsible, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant has been linked to a “rapid increase” of cases over the past few days.
South Africa has reported more than 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, while on Thursday saw the number of new daily cases reach 2,500. Trying to explain the sudden rise in cases, scientists examined the latest virus samples collected and discovered the new variant.
The World Health Organization is bringing together a group of experts to evaluate data from South Africa.
Why are scientists worried about this new variant?
The spike protein found on the surface of the Corona virus seems to have about 30, or multiple, mutations that could affect how easily it spreads to humans.
Sharon Peacock, who leads the genetic sequencing of COVID-19 at the University of Cambridge in England, said data so far show the new variant has mutations “consistent with increased infectiousness”, but noted that the significance of most of the mutations is still unknown.
University of Warwick virologist Lawrence Young described the variant as “the most heavily mutated version of the virus we’ve seen.” He noted that although the variant has only been detected at low levels in parts of South Africa, it appears to be spreading rapidly.
Anthony Fauci, head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said US officials will call their South African colleagues on Friday to learn more, and there is no indication that the variant has yet arrived in the US.
What is known and unknown about the variant?
Scientists know that the new variant is genetically different from previously detected variants, including the Beta and Delta variants, but they don’t yet know whether these genetic changes make it more contagious or more dangerous.
South African scientists have noticed an increase in cases, but they don’t know if the new variant is responsible. It will take weeks to understand whether vaccines are still effective against this variant.
There is no indication so far that the variant causes more severe disease. South African experts said that, as with other variants, some infected people do not have any symptoms.
While some genetic changes in the new variant seem alarming, it is still unclear whether the virus poses a significant public health threat. Some earlier variants, such as the beta variant, initially worried scientists; but it did not spread much.
Francois Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at the University of London Academy, said it is impossible to make any predictions about whether the virus is more dangerous or contagious based on its genetic makeup alone.
How was the new variant created?
As the Corona virus spreads, it undergoes numerous mutations, including those with worrying genetic changes; but many new variants often disappear. Scientists are monitoring the COVID-19 sequences for mutations that could make the disease more contagious or deadly, but cannot determine this by examining the virus alone. They need to compare the disease pattern in epidemics with genetic sequences. It can take time to determine if there is a real connection.
Sharon Peacock of Cambridge University said the new variant may have emerged in a similar fashion to the Alpha variant, which was first identified in England and thought to have arisen by mutating in an immunocompromised person. In other words, the new variant “may have evolved in someone who is infected but later whose body is unable to clear the virus, giving the virus a chance to develop genetically.
Are travel restrictions imposed by some countries necessary?
Maybe. Travelers arriving in the UK from South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbabwe have to self-isolate for 10 days. European Union countries also took swift action on Friday to try to stop air travel from South Africa.
Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases specialist at Imperial College London, said restricting travel from the region was a “prudent” step, given the recent rapid increase in COVID-19 in South Africa.
If the new variant turns out to be more contagious than Delta, the new restrictions would have little effect, but could still give the UK some time to increase vaccination rates and launch other possible interventions, University College London’s Balloux said.
What will happen next?
The World Health Organization convened a technical group of experts to decide whether to classify the new variant as “considerable” or “concerned”. The variant will probably be named with a letter from the Greek alphabet in accordance with the current system.
Currently, ‘variants to consider’ (VOIs), which include the ‘Mu’ and ‘Lambda’ variants, have genetic changes known to affect things like contagion and disease severity and have been identified as causing significant mass epidemics in multiple countries.
“Concern variants” (VOCs), which include Alpha, Beta and Delta, reveal that they can spread more easily, cause more serious illness, or make existing tools such as vaccines less effective.
The delta variant remains the most contagious form of COVID to date. Delta accounts for more than 99% of genetic sequences shared with the world’s largest public database.