What conditions should be met for our society to change?

Societies change. Gradually. It’s in order of things. But today, perhaps more than ever, our society needs a profound transformation. To tackle the climate crisis. Is it even possible? Yes, according to researchers. Provided that changes in individual behavior are accompanied by political incentives. And vice versa.

To save us from global warming, we will have to mobilize technological solutions. But it is increasingly clear that we will also have to change our habits. To probably (re)become more sober. And it seems to be a question here not of a few eco-citizen gestures to be applied hereafter, but of a major change in society. This is why some University of Maine researchers (United States) wondered what conditions should be met to prepare the ground for such profound transformations.

To understand, the researchers developed a mathematical model based on an innovative combination of epidemiological and evolutionary techniques. What simulate a society in which individuals live in groups. And take into account both the prevalence of those who do or do not adopt beneficial behaviors, the diffusion of these behaviors both within the group and globally, the strength of the institutions supporting these behaviors and facilitating their spread, and the cost of these institutions.

What the researchers show is that a behaviour change and policy change are needed to achieve large-scale social change. And that they must occur together. While neither can do the job alone, the change in policy is particularly critical.

Giving impetus to a positive transformation of our society

Among the startling observations is the fact that sometimes beneficial behavior can somehow spread ” too far “. Understand, beyond the groups that benefit from a support policy. So the perceived success of this change decreases. And that slows the spread of the politics that comes with it. Ultimately limiting the very spread of the new behavior throughout society. The simulations thus seem to show that projects that involve both bottom-up viral spread of behavior and top-down political change may be the best kind of solution for big problems of sustainability like climate change. They serve as an example and can spread between groups to influence major change.

To help us understand better, the researchers offer an example. That of organic composting which could be organized in cities. “For the system to work, the waste collected must be of the matter purely organic. But bringing in pure organic waste takes effort from households, so the behavior doesn’t take off on its own. This is a common problem for policy implementation. But if cities experiment with systems to help support and spread the behavior, successful city programs can spread across cities with household contributions, driving effective, large-scale change.”explains Timothy Warings, Professor of modelization socio-ecological systems, in a press release from the University of Maine.

“Our model can help determine how to balance bottom-up and top-down effects so that new solutions can scale. For example, it can help determine when we should promote a behavior like composting across the country to normalize it and when we should instead focus on a well-funded local pilot project to show the potential benefits of composting”, says Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, lead author of the study. So the team now aims to apply these models to all sorts of beneficial social changes, especially to the challenge of tackling climate change.