ASSEMBLY. After the surprise dissolution of the National Assembly, legislative elections are organized on June 30 and July 7, 2024. Who will be the 577 new deputies?
What will the National Assembly look like the day after the 2024 early legislative elections? Since Emmanuel Macron’s historic decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament on June 9, great uncertainty has loomed. French voters are called to the polls on June 30 and July 7 to elect their 577 new deputies. In a few days, the game of alliances began and gives a glimpse of a future hemicycle made up of three blocks.
Flash campaign requires, a historically high number of outgoing deputies are standing for their own re-election: there are 532, to which can be added 22 ministers in office, having won a seat in 2022 before withdrawing in favor of their substitute, and who are leaving again in campaign. Only 23 parliamentarians decided to withdraw, 15 of whom sat in the presidential majority. In 2022, 136 outgoing deputies had not been reinvested.
What will be the composition of the new National Assembly?
The new National Assembly which will take shape on the evening of July 7 will therefore feature a certain number of well-known figures. Especially since these legislative elections are marked by an attempt at a comeback by several former deputies: starting with the former President of the Republic, François Hollande, who is running in his stronghold of Corrèze, at the same time that his former minister, Jérôme Cahuzac, tries his luck in Lot-et-Garonne. The president of the Hauts-de-France region Laurent Wauquiez is for his part invested in Haute-Loire, the former minister Dominique Voynet in Doubs, while Jean Lassalle will try to recover his seat in Pyrénées-Atlantiques.
On the other hand, the political balances should be drastically modified: after the rout of the party ofEmmanuel Macron in the European elections, everything suggests that the President of the Republic will definitely lose his majority, which could lead to the formation of a government of cohabitation. According to the first polls, the National Rally could obtain a relative majority.
But the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front is close behind the far-right party: according to the Cluster17 barometer published on June 14, the RN would obtain between 194 and 245 seats, while the left would obtain between 190 and 235. presidential coalition Ensemble pour la République would retain between 70 and 100, Les Républicains between 25 and 35. Between 10 and 14 seats would finally go to candidates labeled “various left” and between 10 and 16 to candidates from other affiliations.
What was the composition of the National Assembly since 2022?
The legislative elections of June 12 and 19, 2022 renewed the composition of the National Assembly in an unprecedented way: although re-elected President of the Republic a few weeks earlier, in April 2022, Emmanuel Macron found himself deprived of an absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament. The presidential majority (Renaissance ex-LREM, MoDem, Horizons) had thus lost around a hundred deputies compared to the previous mandate, to arrive at 250 seats, while the absolute majority is set at 289.
In this new Assembly, the opposition had therefore placed itself in a position of strength, although it was very divided. The left began this 16th legislature of the Fifth Republic with 141 seats in the hemicycle, thanks to a historic coalition, the New Ecological and Social Popular Union (Nupes). The National Rally had never been so powerful for its part in the Assembly, with 89 deputies. The Republicans, on the other hand, had recorded a clear decline compared to the previous legislature, going from 101 to 62 seats.$
Among the 577 outgoing deputies, 533 are currently representing themselves. It is therefore a match of outgoing candidates against new candidates which begins. Here is the list of deputies who made up the National Assembly, intended to be significantly renewed.
Among the highlights of the 16th legislature, which officially began on June 28, 2022, the National Assembly elected its first female president, Yaël Braun-Pivet. Six vice-presidents were elected the following days, including two from the presidential majority, two from Nupes and two from the National Rally. The presidential majority had also obtained two positions of quaestors, the last having gone to LR deputy Eric Ciotti. Of the eight permanent committees of the Assembly, seven had logically found their presidents among the deputies of the majority coalition. The eighth, the coveted finance committee, which is traditionally chaired by an opposition deputy, had elected the deputy of France Insoumise as its head.