Candidates for the American presidential election are coveting Nevada. With its six major voters, it is one of the famous swing states which could swing the results.
Find the latest trends and polls on the American election
Who will win Nevada in the 2024 presidential election? Less than a month before the election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are still neck and neck. In this key state, the Republican candidate has only a short lead over his Democratic rival. Donald Trump placed himself at the top of the polls, particularly in the final days of the campaign, and is 1 point ahead according to the poll average calculated by RealClearan advance which is reduced to 0.6 points according to the compilation of polls carried out by 270towin. But each time, the results are within the margin of error. The outcome of the election in Nevada can therefore change until the last moment and tilt the vote to one side or the other.
Note, however, that this close result has only been visible since the Democratic camp was represented by Kamala Harris. Before she replaced Joe Biden, the presidential race seemed to be tilted in favor of Donald Trump, who was more than four points ahead of the current American president. The replacement of Joe Biden by Kamala Harris reshuffled the cards in Nevada, but to what extent?
The cost of real estate benefits Donald Trump
The Republican candidate seems to appeal to voters when we broach the subject of the cost of living and especially real estate. Indeed, since the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States has reached 20% and makes access to real estate difficult. Young professionals who wish to invest their income in a house for their family are finding it increasingly difficult to become owners, which could push them to turn to Donald Trump. This is what an American native of Nevada told AFP at the end of August: “We have never earned so much money, but we are struggling more than ever, because the cost of life is absolutely dizzying. This situation could be favorable to republican candidatewho tries to convince, with an incisive speech, that migration control could reduce the cost of real estate, but also of education and health. He also assures that he will lower the borrowing rate by unraveling “useless regulations that increase housing costs”. For her part, Kamala Harris wants to help first-time home buyers with aid of 25,000 dollars (22,800 euros).
Is Nevada usually Democratic or Republican?
To try to estimate which side Nevada voters could move towards, it is interesting to compare the results of previous presidential elections. Since the end of the 1990s, the Democratic camp has convinced Nevada voters. But before that, it was the Republicans who attracted voters. During the 2020 election, which opened the doors to the White House to Joe Biden, Nevada voted 50.1% Democratic. A very close score, like that of Hilary Clinton in 2016 who came first in this state but with only 47% of the votes. Despite the slight advantage in favor of the Democratic camp observed during the last elections, disparities are felt within Nevada. While Las Vegas is generally labeled Democratic, rural areas tend to be Republican.