North Carolina and its 15 major voters are one of the decisive states for the American presidential election. Who will have the advantage of this swing state, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? A trend is emerging.
Find the latest trends and polls on the American election
Who will win the US presidential election in North Carolina, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? This state on the east coast of the United States has 16 electors to offer, enough to tip the scales one way or the other on November 5. National polls give a very slight advantage to the Democratic candidate according to the 270towin compiler. The aggregator FiveThirtyEight also gives the Democrat in the lead but narrowly or tied with Donald Trump. The situation is slightly different with regard to the polls carried out across North Carolina where Donald Trump seems to have a slight advantage. But the American presidential election promises to be close, as evidenced by the few ties observed in the poll results, both at the national level but more often at the state level and particularly in North Carolina. Nothing is decided in advance.
A more marked trend for Trump in the polls
Donald Trump has topped most polls since the start of October, but he has been tied with Kamala Harris on a few occasions. Particularities which prove that if the Democratic candidate is not the favorite, she has a chance of winning North Carolina. Especially since it has risen to first place in number of voting intentions in some studies. But considering all the polls published since the vice-president entered the race in place of Joe Biden, at the end of July, and listed by 270towinthe Republican candidate has come out on top many more times than Kamala Harris.
A trend emerges from the poll results, but the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, whether in favor of one or the other, never exceeds 4 points: 51% for Trump against 47 % for Harris in the study of RMG Research published October 4. The difference between the two scores is most of the time limited to one or two points. The former American president’s lead therefore remains fragile.
North Carolina historically Republican or Democratic?
The political history of North Carolina is divided into several very marked periods, each time with a fairly clear political leaning. This former Confederate state – favorable to slavery during the Civil War – is logically part of a very conservative tradition which continues to this day, undoubtedly helped by the prevalence of religion. North Carolina is part of the Bible Belt, which forms a geographical area in the southeast of the United States in which a large number of people identify with strict Protestantism, a form of Christian fundamentalism.
The voters of North Carolina, given the history of the state, logically voted for the Republican Party before and until the Civil War, after which, from 1876, it was the Democratic camp which prevailed in every presidential election until 1968 with the election of Republican Richard Nixon. Before this date, only one exception existed: that of 1928. Since the victory of Richard Nixon, the Republican Party has won all the presidential elections in North Carolina. Even in 2020, it was Donald Trump who came first but with only 1.4 points ahead of Joe Biden. Only two elections deviate from the rules: that of 1976 with James Carter and that of 2008 with the first victory of Barack Obama.
The history of presidential election results confirms Donald Trump’s good chances of winning the 15 major voters in North Carolina, but it also shows that the state is not safe from falling to the other camp, even a little.