Florida is the third largest source of electors in the United States (30). The winning of this state by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris turns out to be crucial to access the White House, and a trend is emerging.
Find the latest trends and polls on the American election
Has Florida become a Republican stronghold, and no longer really a swing state? On closer inspection, this statement is not completely false, and Donald Trump seems to have widened the gap in the latest polls. This complex status of Florida and its considerable weight in the race for the White House – it grants its winner a whopping 30 electors – make this state one of the pivotal territories par excellence in the American presidential election. As a reminder, the former American real estate mogul won the state in the last two elections, in 2016 and 2020.
Nationally, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is currently in the lead with 48.3% of voting intentions, one point ahead of her Republican competitor, Donald Trump, credited with 47.3% of voting intentions according to 270towin. On the other hand, the trend is quite different in Florida less than a month before the election. The state currently places Donald Trump in the lead with a comfortable lead of six points, constantly increasing in recent weeks, according to the latest poll carried out by 270towindated November 3, 2024.
What do the polls say between Trump and Harris in Florida?
Florida, which can be compared to the 8th Swing state of this 2024 American presidential election, is surely the one in which the suspense is the least present. Indeed, Donald Trump is credited with 51.2% of voting intentions less than a month before the election, quite far ahead of Kamala Harris (44.7%), according to 270towinas of November 3.
The compilation of the latest polls FiveThirtyEight as of November 3, grants a similar lead to the former President of the United States with 51.3% of voting intentions against 44.5% for the Democrat. A reversal of the situation in this conservative related state would be a huge surprise, particularly in view of the lead taken by Donald Trump against Kamala Harris in this final stretch of the American presidential election.
Does Florida lean more Democratic or Republican?
Like most southern states in the United States, Florida voted almost exclusively Democratic from Reconstruction until the mid-20th century, before becoming predominantly Republican in 1952. Florida’s population has exploded over the past 70 years, and its electoral importance has increased with it, from eight votes electoral votes at the end of World War II to 29 in the 2010s. The state gained a 30th electoral vote after the 2020 census, overtaking New York for third in the nation.
The “strategic” state that Florida was in the early 2000s therefore seems to have changed status. A new trend which can be explained by demographic reasons. Indeed, recently, Florida has observed the arrival of a rather elderly population, over 65 years old, which today represents more than 21% of the total population of the State. This rather wealthy socio-professional category and its vote, predominantly Republican, can help explain the latest polls in this state in favor of Donald Trump.
Additionally, the influx of Cubans, retirees, service workers into the booming theme park economy near Orlando and other groups has given rise to a state far more diverse than other states of the south, both economically and politically. Recently, the GOP has again gained the upper hand, winning most statewide elections. Donald Trump won twice here: in 2016 then in 2020 by widening the margin with his competitor, from 1.2 points to 3.3 points apart.