End of reign atmosphere the day after the triggering of 49.3 to adopt the Social Security budget: threatened by a motion of censure, Michel Barnier’s coalition calls for responsibility so as not to bring down the government and avoid “chaos” political and budgetary. “It is the country that we are putting in danger”, worried, this Tuesday, December 3, the Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand. Last stand or final attempt to avoid the fall? This evening, the tenant of Matignon on reprieve will be the guest of the 8:00 p.m. of TF1 and France 2, where he will answer questions from Anne-Sophie Lapix and Gilles Bouleau live, while waiting for a busy weekend at the top of the State.
The motions of censure against the Barnier government will be debated on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m.
The debate followed by a vote on the motions of censure tabled by the left and the National Rally against the government of Michel Barnier will take place on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m., we learned this Tuesday from parliamentary sources. The motion of censure tabled by the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front has every chance of being adopted since the National Rally (RN) has announced its support. The text presented by Marine Le Pen’s party should conversely not be supported by the NFP.
The two motions of censure on the Social Security budget will be discussed in quick succession, starting with that of the left which must be defended by Eric Coquerel, LFI president of the Finance committee. Unless there is a spectacular turnaround, it should be adopted since the RN has declared that it will vote for it, and that 325 deputies have signed one or the other of the two motions of censure, a number much higher than the 288 votes necessary. The first result is expected around 8:00 p.m., according to several parliamentary sources. And after? In the event of a motion of censure, Michel Barnier will no longer be Prime Minister and will only manage current affairs.
Prime Minister: towards a lightning appointment?
According to the Constitution, only the French president can appoint the Prime Minister. And the task is not easy. Already in July 2024, after the results of the early legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron took more than 50 days to appoint Michel Barnier, on September 5, against the backdrop of a tripartite political landscape. Barely three months after his arrival at Matignon, the man who was portrayed as an outstanding mediator is sitting in an ejection seat. And Emmanuel Macron is likely to already have to look for a replacement. With one objective: that he be dubbed by the majority of the National Assembly, more divided than ever with 182 elected New Popular Front, 166 deputies Together, 125 in the National Rally and 47 within the Republican Right.
And some voices are calling for early presidential elections, hoping for the resignation of the head of state. “If the government of Michel Barnier falls, I think that the question that will be asked, in truth, is that of the departure of the President of the Republic”, affirmed Manuel Bompard, coordinator of LFI and deputy for Bouches-du-Rhône , from Sunday on CNews.
The Elysée therefore has every interest in forming a government quickly. According to our colleagues at WorldSébastien Lecornu, discreet Minister of Defense, would be one of the names cited for his good reputation with elected officials of the RN. But this choice would risk distancing the head of state from the most “left” fringe of Macronia. Another strategic option would consist of appointing the president of MoDem, François Bayrou. “Obviously François Bayrou is in this frame of mind but it is not just a question of man”, underlined, this Tuesday, December 3 on France Inter, the leader of the Modem deputies Marc Fesneau. Finally on the left, Lucie Castets remains to this day the official candidate of the NFP, a coalition which came first in the last legislative elections, although her name is excluded from the presidential equation.
What about other budgetary texts?
Before beginning crucial discussions, the National Assembly has planned at this stage to study the end management bill on Wednesday at 3:00 p.m., another financial text which makes it possible to set final budgetary adjustments to be made in end of the year. But discussions are still underway at the Palais Bourbon according to several parliamentary sources, and this inclusion on the agenda could be called into question if we realize that the government will have to resort to 49.3 to have it adopted. A compromise was found Tuesday morning between deputies and senators in a joint committee, with an abstention from the RN, according to several parliamentary sources. For the moment, no configuration seems to promise a majority to pass a budget for 2025.