Dysprosium, neodymium, cerium … Will these metals be the next currency for kyiv, to ensure American military aid against Moscow? Donald Trump said on Monday, February 3, wanting to negotiate an “agreement” with Ukraine so that it offers the United States a “guarantee” on its “rare land”. What are these metals, now strategic for the development of several technologies, and how do they have their importance in the Ukrainian conflict?
Global global demand
The rare earths are made up of 17 raw materials, discovered at the end of the 18th century in Sweden, and each with different properties. These elements were grouped under the same name, because they are often present in the same soils. Once the ore has been recovered in the earth, it is subject to an expensive “separation” treatment to separate it from the other elements.
Say rare, these lands are actually rather abundant on the planet, their discovery increasing with demand. In a 2024 assessment, the US Geological Survey estimated world reserves at 110 million tonnes, including more than a third, 44 million tonnes, located in China, 22 million in Vietnam, 21 million in Brazil, 10 million in Russia and 7 million in India.
“The more demand for these raw materials, the more people seek, the more they find them. The problem is more in the relationship between the cost of extraction and the market price”, analyzes with AFP John Seaman , Researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
However, demand should continue to increase. To reach carbon neutrality in 2050, the European Union will, for example, need on this date 26 times more rare land than today, according to calculations of the Ku Leuven University for Eurometals, the European Association Metal producers.
Essential to industry
Each of these minerals has its usefulness for industry, between the Europium useful for television screens, the cerium intended to polish glass or the Lanthane for catalysts in petrol engines. You can find it as well in a drone, a wind turbine, a hard drive, an electric car engine, a telescope lens or a fighter plane. “Some of these elements are more or less irreplaceable, or at high costs,” notes John Seaman.
Irreemable because their properties are sometimes unique, they are for example privileged to manufacture the permanent magnets of wind turbines at sea, thanks to the qualities of neodymium and dysprosium. Once installed, the magnets require little maintenance and display high performance, facilitating the operation of this equipment installed far from the coast.
Competition with China
In the race for strategic minerals, China is in good position. On the one hand, because it is richly endowed with it, but also because it benefits from “advantages drawn in the regulation of extractive industries”, underlines Jane Nakano, researcher in Washington, at the International Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS ).
Beijing has indeed been able, over the years and massive public investments, maintaining a large network of refining of raw materials, today bringing many producers to the planet to export their minerals. Beijing has also filed more patents in the rare earths than the whole rest of the world gathered, reports Jane Nakano.
Diversify supplies
Between commercial and geopolitical differences, the tensions between China and the West are numerous. Brussels and Washington feel the urgency to diversify their supplies on these essential raw materials. The fears of blockages are also based on a painful previous: Tokyo had seen his rare earth tap cut by China in 2010 due to a territorial conflict.
Japan has since diversified its supplies, going from agreements with the Australian company Lynas in Malaysia and developing its recycling sector. In the United States, another alert occurred in May 2019. In the middle of a trade war with Washington, Chinese President Xi Jinping had visited a rare earth processing plant, thus leaving the threat of a blockage by China of refined rare earth exports.
Ukraine, a solution for Westerners?
Faced with this problem, many looks turn to Ukraine, where Volodymyr Zelensky does not exclude taking advantage of the rare earths to extract military support. In a peace plan unveiled last October, the Ukrainian president had, without specifically evoking the rare earths, proposed a “special agreement” with the partners of his country, allowing “common protection” and a “common exploitation of strategic resources” of his country.
He had given examples “uranium, titanium, the lithiumgraphite and other high -value strategic resources “. These minerals will probably be part of the” agreement “mentioned earlier this week by Donald Trump:” We are trying to find an agreement with Ukraine according to which they would bring in Guaranteed their rare land and other things in exchange for what we give them, “said the American president during an exchange with journalists in the oval office.