What is really the human toll of the strike on Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, which occurred on Tuesday October 17? It’s impossible to know as the figures differ. This strike killed at least 471 people displaced by the conflict who were sheltering within the hospital grounds, according to the Ministry of Health of the Palestinian territory, controlled by Hamas. A senior European intelligence official, interviewed by AFP, estimated the number of deaths from this strike at “a few dozen”.
The United States puts forward an intermediate figure. The human toll of this tragedy is “probably at the bottom of a range between 100 and 300” deaths, according to an American intelligence note of which AFP was able to consult extracts on Thursday October 19. “We are still working on the number of deaths and our estimate may change, but this human toll still represents a staggering loss of human life,” estimates the office at the origin of this note, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (ODNI), which coordinates all American intelligence agencies.
This summary sent to Congress states that Israel “probably did not bomb the hospital in the Gaza Strip.” Intelligence information indicates that “Palestinian fighters in the Gaza Strip believed that the explosion was likely caused by a faulty rocket or missile fired by Islamic Jihad,” according to extracts from the document.
The American services observed “only minor damage to the hospital structures”. “There is no observable damage to the main hospital building, nor any impact crater,” we can still read in extracts from this note.
Hamas and Israel blame each other
Hamas accused Israel, which denied it, of bombing the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. According to Islamic Jihad – an ally of Hamas and classified like it as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, and Israel – it was a bomb dropped by an Israeli army plane which caused the tragedy.
Israel, for its part, claimed to have “proof” of the responsibility of Islamic Jihad. “There was no army fire from land, sea or air that hit the hospital,” General Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the Israeli army, told the press. “Our radar systems located the missiles fired by Gaza terrorists at the time of the explosion and trajectory analysis shows that the rockets were fired near the hospital.”
An Israeli army spokesman, Jonathan Conricus, reiterated that it was “not an Israeli bomb because there is no crater in the photos.” The Israeli army released maps and an audio recording that it presents as a conversation between two Hamas members discussing responsibility for Islamic Jihad.
Data collected by infrared sensors
As early as Wednesday, US President Joe Biden publicly declared, from Israel where he was on a solidarity visit, that the strike appeared to have been “the result of an errant rocket fired by a terrorist group in Gaza.”
On Wednesday, Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council (NSC), also indicated that the American government “believes that Israel is not responsible for the explosion.” “Our assessment is based on available reports, including intelligence, missile activity and open source videos and images of the incident,” she said, adding that the United States continues to collect information.
Asked by the New York TimesU.S. officials speaking on condition of anonymity also said that several early intelligence items, including infrared satellite data, show the launch of a rocket or missile from Palestinian fighter positions at the inside Gaza.
A senior Defense Department official said that, based on data collected by infrared sensors, the United States was “fairly confident” that launching a rocket or missile did not come from Israeli forces.
The issue of disclosure of information
As reported by CNN, the National Security Council said the Biden administration plans to release as much intelligence as possible about the attack. “We will share this information with our friends and partners in the region. We have shared as much information as possible publicly,” Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said on CNN on Thursday.
According to the White House, providing an assessment to the public would be helpful in attempting to establish a clear and accurate account of events. Following a briefing at the Capitol on Wednesday afternoon, a bipartisan group of senators urged the Biden administration to make public as much information as possible.
The debate reflects growing concern that the United States and Israel have lost control of the narrative over responsibility for Tuesday night’s hospital explosion, CNN notes. Former intelligence officials and sources close to current American intelligence interviewed by the American media are skeptical that information made public, originating from the United States, could be believed in the Arab world.