Good surprise for Morocco, bad for Algeria. The Spanish government gave for the first time publicly, on March 18, its support for the Moroccan autonomy project for Western Sahara, while Madrid had always adopted a neutral position between Rabat and the Sahrawi separatists of the Polisario Front, supported by Alger.
Pedro Sanchez has also made additional enemies in Spain, where all political parties have denounced his reversal on the thorny issue of the former Spanish colony. The Prime Minister should explain himself next week before the deputies in order to explain this radical change of position.
A rich and disputed territory
Cut from North to South since the 1980s by a “defense wall”, as the Moroccan authorities who erected it call it, 2700 km long, Western Sahara has more than half a million inhabitants. At the heart of the rivalry between Rabat and Algiers, and even of the diplomatic rupture between the two enemy brothers last August, the region harbors an economic windfall. It benefits from a coastline of 1,000 kilometers – its waters are among the richest in fish in the world – and soils rich in phosphate, the main component of fertilizers, prices are soaring right now.
Officially, Western Sahara (600,000 inhabitants), located on the southern border of the kingdom, does not belong to Morocco. The majority of states on the planet do not recognize its sovereignty over this disputed territory, also claimed by the separatists of the Polisario Front. Supported by Algeria, they proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 1976. More than four decades later, the conflict remains intense. Rabat, which controls nearly 80% of this territory, is proposing an autonomy plan under its sovereignty while the Polisario is calling for a self-determination referendum.
Infographics
Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
“Attracted by generous government subsidies, many Moroccans have moved to this territory to obtain jobs in the public sector and the fishing and phosphate industries”, specifies a report by the NGO Crisis Grouppublished in October.
Morocco also claims to carry out major investment programs, but the Polisario considers that they do not benefit the Sahrawi population. Between 100,000 and 200,000 Sahrawi refugees, according to sources, live in camps near the Algerian town of Tindouf, near the Moroccan border.
Ending a crisis with Rabat
By publicly supporting Morocco’s autonomy proposal, Madrid made the gesture Rabat had been waiting for to end a major diplomatic crisis. Caused by the reception in Spain in April of the leader of the Sahrawi separatists of the Polisario Front, to be treated there for Covid, this estrangement had led to the arrival in mid-May of more than 10,000 migrants in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, in favor of a relaxation of controls on the Moroccan side.
Recalled then by Rabat, the Moroccan ambassador to Spain made her return on Sunday. In return for its turn on the Sahara, a national cause in Morocco, Madrid ensures that it can count on “total cooperation” from Rabat in “the management of migratory flows”, the central reason for this agreement.
“Spain knows from experience that when relations with Morocco are good, the arrival of migrants drops drastically,” said Eduard Soler, North Africa expert at the Center for International Affairs in Barcelona. But “the guarantees that Spain may have had on the control of migratory flows cannot be taken for granted”, warns Irene Fernandez Molina, professor of international relations at the British University of Exeter.
The Spanish government also believes that the agreement with Rabat will guarantee its “territorial integrity”. An implicit reference to the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, claimed by Morocco which could therefore put its claims on hold.
Gas Supply Risks
Still, the timing and method of the announcement of the Spanish position by Rabat, contrary to diplomatic practices, raise questions. “This gives the impression that the (Moroccan) royal palace probably anticipated ‘a communication without notifying Spain’ with certain intentions,” notes Isaias Barreñada, professor of international relations at Complutense University in Madrid.
The first consequence was the recall by Algeria, the main support of the Polisario, of its ambassador in Madrid, which opened another diplomatic crisis with uncertain consequences. Madrid, however, claims to have warned Algiers in advance of its support for the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco. But the repercussions could nevertheless be significant for Spain.
Algeria is indeed one of Spain’s main gas suppliers, which puts Madrid at the mercy of reprisals, in the midst of soaring energy prices accentuated by the war in Ukraine. Professor at the Esade business school, Enric Bartlett Castellà nevertheless considers it “unlikely” that Algiers will reduce or cut off its tap, “given the current price level” and because “compliance with signed contracts is an important guarantee” of the credibility of a supplier.
But Algeria could on the other hand review its partnership with Madrid in the medium term and reserve its surplus production for other countries, he warns. This would force Spain to look for other, more distant and therefore more expensive suppliers. “Algeria is a very important ally for Spain, which brings stability to its gas supply and will continue to do so in the future,” Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calviño wanted to reassure on Monday.
However, Spain has recently reduced its dependence on Algerian gas via imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to the shutdown by Algiers of a gas pipeline passing through Morocco, against a backdrop of crisis between the two countries. of the Maghreb. “Previously, nearly 50% of Spanish gas came from Algeria. But in January, Washington became Spain’s leading supplier, with 30% of its imports, compared to 28% for Algiers”, underlines Gonzalo Escribano, researcher at the Elcano Institute in Madrid.
Misunderstanding in Spain
In addition to alienating Algeria, Pedro Sanchez was strongly criticized in his own country after this position which caused deep unease within the ruling coalition. Favorable to the self-determination of the Sahrawis, his allies of Podemos (radical left) denounced the “inconsistency” and the “opacity” of this decision by the voice of the Minister of Labor Yolanda Diaz, who however assured that this crisis would not get the better of the government. The fact remains that these new tensions with Podemos come at a delicate time for Pedro Sanchez, as social discontent is mounting in the country in the face of record inflation.
Beyond Podemos, the reversal on the Sahara has been denounced by all the political parties which, like the Popular Party (PP, right), are calling on the Socialist Prime Minister to explain his decision on a subject “on which there was a consensus for 47 years” and the departure of the Spaniards from the Sahara in 1975.
Speaking in the Senate, Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares assured for his part that “Spain’s position was similar to that of France and Germany”. “There are two possibilities” in this case, he said. “Talk, talk or contribute to resolving a conflict that has lasted for 46 years, and that’s what the Spanish government wants to do,” he defended himself. According to government spokeswoman Isabel Rodriguez, the head of the Spanish government should explain himself next week to the deputies.