What is seven months in politics? So long, so short. When the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) landed in the National Assembly in June with its 149 deputies, we very quickly predicted the implosion of this strange agreement. A poorly identified political object, under the leadership of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, where socialists, environmentalists, rebels and communists agreed on as many disagreements as shared battles. An alliance supposed to wake up a broken left like a puzzle, give it pride and, even the candidate Mélenchon dreamed of, a Prime Minister.
None of this happened. The new left has neither broken up nor restored the image of the left. “We are no more at the end of the Nupes than at the beginning”, summarizes the socialist deputy Arthur Delaporte who nevertheless sees a success, and not the least: “We come back from afar all the same… A year ago, at the same time, we were inveighing against each other all day long. The Nupes does not leave anyone indifferent. It provokes either the hostility, noisy and radical, of the liberals and the far right, or membership.
Membership? A wishful thinking. Since its birth, there has been no breakthrough in opinion. In October, during his march against the high cost of living, Jean-Luc Mélenchon believed he saw the emergence of “a new popular front”. Without a doubt. Because as in 1936, the spectacular nature of the alliance has obscured the electoral reality. Even at the time of Léon Blum, the team was no more triumphant than the scores of the radicals, socialists and communists four years earlier, in 1932. Rebelote eighty-six years later: the performance of the 149 seats won by Nupes, although higher than the 64 saved in 2017, is less than that of 2007 (227 deputies) and 2002 (162). “You have to be lucid. The Nupes is an electoral agreement which did not win. It was a good defensive strategy but not offensive, that is to say which was not intended to be a majority”, saber l EELV MEP David Cormand, close to the new patroness of environmentalists Marine Tondelier.
Like Sisyphus pushing his rock to the top of the mountain, the left Nupes version carries his sorrows. The eternal sorrows of the left: the conquest of the working classes in the fractured France of the sub-prefectures. Where public services are shutting down, town centers are dying and medical deserts are thriving. “Of the 225 constituencies where there is a sub-prefecture, Nupes is present 124 times in the second round for only 39 victories”, observes Thibault Lhonneur, municipal councilor of Vierzon, in a recent note from the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
“Credibility Shock”
If the Nupes didn’t really lose, they didn’t win anything either. “The only valid question since the legislative elections, questions a socialist framework, is whether we are in a spirit of conquest. It is not the feeling that we give.” In September, it was another rebellious deputy – François Ruffin – who was moved by it with Olivier Faure: “I’m not sure that we have the wind at our backs.” These two admit it bluntly: from the end of August and the first days of the start of the school year in September, the Nupes missed its ball opening. The controversy over barbecues, assistantships, the right to laziness, the adventures of Julien Bayou’s private life and the soap opera of the Adrien Quatennens affair… So many peripheral subjects which diverted the alliance from its objectives of conquest election, and brings to light divisions and ego crises. “We must return to our fundamental fights”, an impatient leader of the PS who launches, like a cry from the heart: “we must refocus!”
“The Nupes agreement in the legislative elections was a shock of sincerity, but now we need a shock of credibility”, pleads Philippe Brun, socialist deputy from a constituency where the yellow vests have emerged, in a department where the National Rally storefront. He still hasn’t digested the Viavoice barometer for Release of August. The Nupes finds itself behind the RN, and on a par with the presidential majority, in terms of legitimacy to improve purchasing power. She now fears losing her footing in the battle against pension reform. The communist Fabien Roussel understood this well. Usually on the outskirts of Nupes, the boss of the PCF has surprised his rebellious and socialist partners lately. He who had disappeared, and who has never hidden his lack of attachment to the collective led by Mélenchon, is particularly committed to preparing for the united battle against the pension reform which should land in January. A political fight seen as a hen laying golden eggs for the parliamentary left.
“If I were very cynical, says a lieutenant of Olivier Faure, I would say that I do not want Emmanuel Macron to back down before the battle is fought. Without a fight, no victory. If, with the Nupes and the unions, we manage to push it back on the parliamentary ground and in the streets, then we will have a first real social triumph.”
Quatennens, an additional obstacle
And yet, this fight is also threatened by differences, egos and “peripheral” subjects. The reorganization of the management of La France insoumise, from which Clémentine Autain, François Ruffin and Alexis Corbière were excluded, caused an open crisis within LFI, with some accusing Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his lifelong lieutenant Manuel Bompard of “locking down” movement. The return of Adrien Quatennens, recently sentenced for having slapped his wife, adds to the trouble. Temporarily excluded from the parliamentary group, the latter has already indicated that he will return to the benches of the National Assembly in January, to the chagrin of many elected LFI, PS, EELV and PCF who are calling on him to give up his seat as a deputy. “If he returns in the middle of a pension battle, he will pollute the fight”, worries a rebellious man who had little taste for the “American” interview on BFMTV, full of more private than political confidences, of his colleague Quatennes.
In 2023 and 2024, Nupes will have to face many obstacles. The preparation for the European elections is one of the toughest. Starting with the ecologists who have little desire to take a common path with the rebellious on the ground of Europe. “When it’s no, it’s no! We have to stop being pushy, we said it, we said it again, we said it again, now stop! We talk when they want a lot of things but for the Europeans, it’s no, it’s the last time I say it”, annoyed the leader of the green pack, Marine Tondelier, who is rather aiming for an agreement with the Socialists. Problem: Olivier Faure, although jostled by his internal supporters who do not want a Nupes list for the Europeans, for lack of a shared line on the question, still hopes for an agreement for the ballot. “If the socialists go there alone, the ecologists too, the rebellious and the cocos too … Everyone will make their score, at best 10 or 12 for the environmentalists, and in the end we will be left with the Le Pen-Macron duel”, pleads a loyal to the socialist.
In seven months, water has flowed under the Nupes bridges. Identity desires have regained strength. Gone are the days of hugs between Olivier Faure and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, big shared smiles. We criticize the rebellious leader, we are already looking for a replacement for him for 2027. He too would be one of the many obstacles. He smiles: the time for retirement has not come. The invectives have not returned, not yet, but the words become harsher with regard to the partners, and the tension more lively. May’s friendly is no longer really. “And what do the socialists say about it?” asks Mélenchon one day. The next day, Olivier Faure: “What did they tell you, the ecologists?” On the left, the refrain of suspicion – without end – continues to play. We love each other less than yesterday, but more than tomorrow.