US President Joe Biden was on the phone with senior National Security officials when his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine early Thursday, February 24. Benjamin Haddad, European director of the think tank Atlantic Council in Washington, discusses the policy of the United States and the Atlantic Alliance in this crisis.
RFI: American intelligence had finally seen it right and yet, that did not prevent the inevitable…
Benjamin Haddad: Indeed. Americans not only had planned this invasion, almost to the day, but warned of a massive invasion that could even aim to decapitate the regime in Kiev. Many diplomatic efforts have been made, especially by the Europeans, in recent weeks to try to prevent this invasion. Vladimir Putin chose violence. He turned his back on diplomacy. But the American strategy had several objectives.
One of these objectives was obviously to push for a diplomatic effort: that failed. The other objective was to pre-empt Russian discourse and propaganda, so that in the event of an invasion, Russia could not put forward a false pretext, such as a border incident. In order also to enable the allies to be mobilized in response, whether in terms of economic sanctions or support for Ukraine. It worked rather well since the front is quite united and firm against this aggression.
Finally, the last objective of the United States was also to push for the evacuation of American nationals from Ukraine in recent weeks.
American communication on the movements of Russian troops on this Russian-Ukrainian border has been almost daily. This strategy did not deter Vladimir Putin from implementing his plan.
No, it didn’t deter Vladimir Putin. Many people around Joe Biden were traumatized by Russian interference in Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. Washington think tanks have done a lot of work in recent years on issues of counter-disinformation, Russian counter-propaganda . There was really the will, on the part of the United States, to take control of the narrative, of the narrative and not to allow Russia the possibility of imposing its propaganda themes. For example, we have seen the Russians, in recent days, speak of ” genocide in the Donbass, a lot of inventions. And I believe that on this side, clearly, Russia’s objectives could have been denounced in advance.
Sanctions were announced ahead of this invasion. Does this mean that it is an ineffective policy, too weak a lever?
It’s a lever that’s not perfect, that’s for sure. It should not be underestimated either because in 2014-2015, the sanctions had all the same succeeded in reining in Russia and had resulted in a ceasefire. But it is not a magic instrument. We must go much further, go beyond what was done the last time by isolating Putin and his relatives as much as possible: hitting the Russian regime, the assets of Vladimir Putin and his relatives, oligarchs close to power, who hide money and villas in the West. We must reveal to the Russian population what we know about the corruption of this regime.
These are the few “carrots and sticks” that remain in the hands of Joe Biden, to use the expression of the New York Times ?
Yes, but we must also support Ukraine economically and militarily. The Americans have said it over and over again: they will not fight for Ukraine. The few American soldiers still present in Ukraine withdrew last week. On the other hand, it will also be necessary to bring reassurance to the allies of NATO in central and eastern Europe, who have themselves been threatened by this Russian revisionism of Vladimir Putin for years.
No sending of American troops, indeed, on Ukrainian soil. Could the military reaction take place via NATO ?
Neither NATO nor the United States will fight for Ukraine. There will also be no NATO troops in Ukraine. On the other hand, one can think of other types of support such as arms deliveries and economic and financial support.
The American press salutes the unity of the NATO allies. Isn’t this unit in danger of disintegrating as the Russian invasion continues?
I do not believe that. I think this is a real turning point in European history, for collective security. France and Germany pushed diplomatic efforts to the limit. Emmanuel Macron spoke to Vladimir Putin many times and Russia violently closed the door to diplomacy. I think this is a wake up call for the continent. We see a very strong transatlantic unity which, in my opinion, will last.
Excluding Moscow from the Swift system, this international system of interbank transactions, is it the ultimate weapon? ?
Before the invasion, some European countries, such as Germany, were skeptical. There, I think that the images of violence coming from Ukraine will awaken consciences. Corn beyond the Swift systemI think that direct sanctions targeting the Russian oligarchs and leaders, as well as their relatives, are extremely important.
Domestically now, this war is taking place in a political context of division in the United States. Can this further widen the gap?
It’s possible. It’s a bit paradoxical, because on the one hand we see Republicans attacking Joe Biden by saying that he was too weak in his reaction to Vladimir Putin; and conversely, others from the rather Trumpist, populist, pro-Putin branch, who align themselves with the Russian propaganda discourse. This is the case, for example, of Tucker Carlson, the star presenter of Fox News, who has decided to completely adopt the language elements of the Kremlin.
Is this a challenge for Joe Biden in this election year context in the United States?
Yes and for the moment, he points it out having been very clear about the communication and denunciation of Russian disinformation. He also raises it by mobilizing the allies, which made it possible to announce sanctions very quickly. But it is indeed a crisis that will be very difficult for the White House to manage in the coming months.
He is due to deliver his traditional State of the Union address next week. A speech that comes this year in a very particular context…
Joe Biden has placed at the heart of his campaign speech the renewal of American leadership, the defense of liberal democracy and alliances, in particular the Transatlantic Alliance. He tried to have a constructive relationship with Vladimir Putin, to recreate a stable and predictable relationship. That was the White House strategy. So when we hear Joe Biden talk about alliances, talk about defending democracy in Europe, it will be completely consistent with his political career in recent decades.