We know this about the high terrorist threat

The security police have raised the terror threat level in Sweden from 3 to 4 on the five-point scale. The government urges the public to continue life as usual.

This is what we know about the deteriorating security situation.

What does an increase in the terrorist threat level mean?

An increase from 3 to 4 means that the threat picture is deemed to have gone from “increased threat” to “high threat”.

The National Center for Terror Threat Assessment (NCT) assesses the terror threat level and the head of the Security Police (Säpo) decides what level Sweden should have. NCT is a permanent working group with personnel from the Defense Radio Agency (FRA), the Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must) and Säpo. The assessment is based, among other things, on intelligence and other information about actors’ intention and ability to carry out attacks.

The purpose of the threat level scale is to give a warning about how the terrorist threat is judged to look in the foreseeable future. It is a signal to authorities and other social actors about the importance of continuing to work preventively against terrorism.

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What do we know about the threats?

The decision to raise the terror threat level is not due to any single incident, but should be seen as a consequence of “a gradual deterioration of the threat picture against Sweden” that took place during the year, according to Säpo head Charlotte von Essen.

Sweden has gone from being “a legitimate to a priority target” for actors in violent Islamist extremism. The threat, which according to Säpo is therefore not concrete, is judged to remain for a longer period of time – estimated to be approximately six to twelve months.

The fact that Sweden is pointed out much more clearly than before as a Muslim-hostile country in propaganda is feared to be able to inspire and motivate actors, both individuals and global terrorist groups, to carry out terrorist acts. For example, the terrorist organization al-Qaeda recently called for attacks in Sweden.

According to Säpo, one reason for the deteriorating security situation is the recent Koran burnings. But disinformation campaigns such as the LVU campaign, where Swedish social services have been accused for a long time of taking Muslim children into care, have also contributed, according to von Essen.

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What is the government doing to increase security?

Protecting citizens’ safety is the highest priority, according to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M). He has convened the National Security Council and will keep the Riksdag’s parties informed of the situation. The government is in close dialogue with Säpo and other relevant authorities.

The prime minister has also said that he is in close contact with the leaders of other countries, while Swedish security services cooperate closely with their foreign counterparts.

– Now a huge amount of measures are being taken, both those that are openly visible and those that are secret. But they all aim for people to be able to go to concerts, be in shops and public open places, Kristersson said at a press conference.

The government is currently conducting an analysis of the ordinance to see if it can be changed to stop the Koran burnings.

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What do the police do?

The police have strengthened their work against terrorism following Säpo’s increase in the threat level through several measures.

The operational cooperation with Säpo is strengthened, the crime prevention cooperation Redex – which aims to combat violent extremism – gets more employees at national and regional level and the dialogue activities are expanded. The latter means that the area police, municipal police and dialogue police in the local police areas receive reinforcement in their contact-seeking work against violent extremism.

Among the measures are also increased internet surveillance and cyber capabilities to be able to better act against cyber attacks. Intensified border controls in collaboration with the Swedish Customs Service, the Coast Guard and Säpo is another area that is prioritized.

According to National Police Chief Anders Thornberg, the police’s “national and regional response capabilities” have been strengthened in order to be able to quickly and effectively be deployed in the event of terrorist acts or terrorist threats.

The police will also work more closely with organizers of events and public gatherings.

What does the opposition say about the government’s work?

Social Democrats party leader Magdalena Andersson understands that many people feel worried.

– Sweden is in a serious situation and the most important thing for our country is to face this together, because there are forces that will try to take advantage of this situation, she has told TT.

She has said about the government’s work:

– I think it is good that the government has ensured that our authorities have what they need, but the government needs to be clearer about the strategy going forward.

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How should one think and reason as a private person?

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Säpo head Charlotte von Essen have called on the public to “live as usual” but to be vigilant, critical of sources and follow the authorities’ information.

– I understand that many Swedes are concerned about the new and higher threat level. To all of you, I want to say that we should live our lives as usual, Kristersson said at a press conference.

Jörgen Holmlund, teacher of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, thinks that private individuals should move as before but with some exceptions.

– Demonstrations due to the situation we have found ourselves in, i.e. Koran burnings and counter-demonstrations that belong to these. I would avoid being near these or taking public transport to the stations nearby, about two hours before the event and two hours after.

It is also good to be alert for people behaving aberrantly and left objects such as bags, and sound the alarm if the situation feels wrong.

Holmlund’s tip is to work on “personal awareness” when moving around in public environments.

– With your own awareness, you lower your own stress level. Think about it and create an action plan. It makes it possible to dare to move in public space. You own a little of the power to act.