An expert drew the “risk corridor” on which the 2024 YR4 asteroid. Some areas concerned are very populated.
The asteroid 2024 YR4, nicknamed City Killer, spotted last December worried. He then went 828,800 kilometers from the earth and should come back. It should get closer again to the end of 2028 and could even touch the earth on December 22, 2032. Its diameter is currently estimated between 40 and 90 meters, but should be cleared thanks to infrared observations with the James-Webb telescope in the coming months. “It is estimated that an object like 2024 YR4 could scratch a city like Paris from the map and dig a crater of a kilometer in diameter. If he fell at sea, he would cause a tsunami,” said Olivier Sangy, head of space news at the Cité de l’Espace de Toulouse, with The dispatch Last January.
Faced with these observations, David Rankin, engineer of the American astronomical project Catalina Sky Survey from the University of Arizona, unveiled a “risk corridor” of impact, calculated according to the current asteroid trajectory. The latter crosses northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, South Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa. More specifically, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, Ghana and Ecuador could be threatened.
“The asteroid 2024 YR4 should follow an equatorial trajectory which could take it over certain fairly populated places, such as Mumbai in India, certain parts of the Arabian Peninsula and certain African countries such as Nigeria and Ghana. It is also likely that it crosses the Atlantic and reaches South America, potentially impacting places like Venezuela and Colombia.” he details L on X Via the Star Walk account. He fears that this asteroid can do as much damage as the one who devastated the Siberian forest in 1908, tearing 2,000 km² of trees in a region fortunately uninhabited. He also specifies that the regions located at the extreme end of this risk corridor would be less brutally affected. The exact location of the impact potential cannot be determined to date because it would depend on the rotation of the earth at that time.
But what is the real risk of impact? After its discovery, the calculated trajectory involved a risk of impact of 3.1% according to NASA and 2.8% according to the European space agency. Quite historical figures. They were finally revised downwards. According to the latest ESA calculations, the risk is only 0.001%, an opportunity in 100,000. NASA has however mentioned a slightly stronger (1.7%) collision with the moon. There is therefore no concern to have, the asteroid remaining still under surveillance.