By concentrating its forces in eastern Ukraine, Russia is striving to achieve even some kind of military success before the traditional Victory Day celebration in early May.
Russia withdrew from the vicinity of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and is concentrating its forces in eastern Ukraine. Below you can read why this happened and what Russia can achieve in eastern Ukraine.
The rapid conquest of Kiev failed
The Ukrainian army blocked the takeover of a key airport.
Russia probably wanted to fly Antonov with a lot of equipment and troops that would have allowed it to move quickly to the center of Kiev. After this failed (switch to another service)Russia drifted into fierce fighting near Kiev.
A tens of kilometers of military troops approaching Kiev from the north also froze.
After heavy losses, Russia withdrew from the Kiev area and, more broadly, from northern Ukraine.
The resistance of the Ukrainian army surprised
The Ukrainian army has strengthened considerably from what it was in 2014 during the occupation of the Crimean peninsula.
Just before the Russian invasion, the United States estimates, based on intelligence, that Russian forces could take over Kiev and overthrow the president. Volodymyr Zelensky two days after the start of the ground attack.
However, Ukraine’s preparations had been better than expected. The Ukrainian army has received a large amount of foreign weapons aid before and during the war.
Ukraine has made a bad impression on Russian military convoys, including with Turkish-made combat drones.
The experience of fighting in eight years of fighting on the Eastern Ukrainian front has also been useful in the current war.
Maintenance problems of Russian troops
Russian soldiers have abandoned their equipment because food and fuel have run out.
The war in Ukraine has been marked by news of the Russian army’s difficulty in servicing its troops. Because Russia thought it would take over Kiev quickly, maintenance was not specifically planned.
In addition, maintenance transports were taken as a special target by special forces of the Ukrainian army.
Videos have been shared on social media in which Ukrainian farmers are towing equipment left behind by the Russians on a tractor.
It takes time to gather strength
The arrival in Eastern Ukraine of both the troops fighting around Kiev and the reservists is taking time.
There were visible signs of troop concentration in eastern Ukraine in early April.
News channel CNN (switch to another service) told of a new long column, this time in the northeast of Ukraine east of Kharkov. The satellite images showed a hose about 13 miles south.
Russian troops fighting around Kiev would probably need more time to mobilize than Russia is willing to spend on it.
Russia is seeking to mobilize about 60,000 reservists for additional troops in Ukraine. Their preparation for the front may also be deficient.
There is no precise information on the situation of the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine. The war has been going on for weeks now, which has inevitably put Ukrainians tough. The fighting spirit is still fierce.
Russia starts a second war
Russia may try to shut down the Ukrainian army in a large siege ring.
As Russia did not reach its targets in Kiev, it is starting a new war in eastern Ukraine.
Crucial to the outcome of the war is whether Russia intends and is able to besiege the Ukrainian army fighting in eastern Ukraine. A large siege ring could emerge if Russia succeeds in advancing in the Kharkiv region, from Izjum along the Donets River southwest to the Dnipro.
The blockade could force Ukraine to negotiate both the return of its own troops and the surrender of the territory.
If Russia moves south from Izjum, the goal may be to secure the occupation of southern Ukraine.
The conquest of the port city of Mariupol would be of great symbolic significance for Russia. The management of the city on the shores of the Azov Sea would guarantee land access from the Crimean peninsula to Russia.
The significant date for the war schedule may be May 9th. Then Russia traditionally remembers the victory over Nazi Germany.
The Russian leadership hardly wants a miserable attempt to take over Kiev to ruin this year’s celebration. Experts have estimated that before the day of victory for the president Vladimir Putin would like some significant military success in Ukraine.
Consultant, military professor (evp) interviewed for the article Mika Hyytiäinen and Former Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff, Major General (EVP) Pekka Toveri.
You can discuss the topic until Wednesday 13.4. until 11 p.m.