Laurent Wauquiez likes to remind him. The opinion polls carried out four years before a presidential election are not oracles. All are denied at the ballot box. “The star of the polls, the French cut off his head,” insists the putative candidate for 2027. The former minister can breathe, he is not promised the tragic fate of Louis XVI. An Ifop surveyLe Figaro Magazine only grants the president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region 5% of the vote if the presidential competition takes place today. Far behind Marine Le Pen (29%) and Edouard Philippe (26%).
On the right, this investigation crystallizes a nagging question: Are the Republicans (LR) condemned to a candidacy for testimony in 2027? What if the right was unable to be on the starting line? History will answer. But the question reveals the depth of the crisis experienced by the heir to the UMP. “A party in palliative care close to therapeutic relentlessness”, notes an adviser.
A base so weak
The new boss of LR Éric Ciotti has assigned himself the task of bringing the right back to power. He shares a common analysis with Laurent Wauquiez. The heirs of Macronism will not be able to embody the alternation, a new era will open in 2027. Mélenchon”, judge in private the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes. He wanted to set this doctrine to music in the Assembly. Support for pension reform to establish LR’s credibility. Rejection of the immigration law to put a sovereign marker.
Alas, this scenario exploded in flight. The parliamentary right was torn openly over pensions, unable to speak with one voice. Personal rivalries and ideological vagueness have damaged his credibility. “I don’t know how we recover from this situation, admits a leader. What will we say at the next presidential election? That we are going to put the public accounts back on track?”
Laurent Wauquiez and Xavier Bertrand, rivals for 2027, have opted for distinct strategies in this period. The first was walled in silence, the second vilified government reform on the sets. But both think they are protected from the mistakes of LR. They develop an offer on the sidelines of the party. Isn’t the presidential election the meeting between a man and a people? Optimism flirts with blindness, as Macron’s personal adventure in 2017 was exceptional. “The LR collective brand has weakened so much that they inherit a weak base, notes a hierarch. And neither has a base of fans.” In the circuit for 20 years, they have never generated national enthusiasm.
The “taboo” of a non-candidacy
It’s time for “general depression”. The right is not helped by the electoral calendar. She is threatened with disappearance from the European Parliament in 2024, and local alliances with the majority during the municipal elections of 2026 risk blurring her line of independence. Clearing a political space between the RN and the central bloc is akin to a quest for the philosopher’s stone. “An LR candidate to win is a view of the mind. We don’t have enough voters to reach the second round”, notes ex-minister Jean-François Copé.
2027 is far away. The time is not for grand maneuvers, but for intellectual progress. Out of pure pragmatism, LR executives observe the preparation of Edouard Philippe or Bruno Le Maire. It’s too early to get closer, but a psychological barrier is rising. “I will not shoot myself for a Wauquiez or another and make 5%”, laughs a member of the management.
On condition of anonymity, some evoke the “taboo” of an absence of LR candidacy to defeat a Mélenchon-Le Pen duel. A lieutenant of Éric Ciotti confides: “If no one emerges, I cannot exclude that LR decides to support an autonomous Philippe from Macron or a Darmanin who would have shown his difference with the macronists on the left. If our space is too constrained, it will be necessary to agree on a right-wing candidate outside LR.
“If we don’t win in 2027, we will end up like the radical party”
LR offside? The reflection is very minority on the right, where the determination of Xavier Bertrand and Laurent Wauquiez is hardly in doubt. Parties die slowly, mourning is a long process. The Socialist Party did send Anne Hidalgo to the pipe-breaker in 2022. “I wish there was no LR candidate, but I think there will be someone, admits an LR senator. Our activists are still there and they believe in the providential man.”
On the right, these analyzes are often issued by supporters of a government coalition with Emmanuel Macron. The debates on 2027 extend those on the conclusion of an agreement between LR and the presidential majority. This controversy is not ideological, but strategic. Optimists believe in LR’s ability to rise from the ashes. The pessimists have integrated the downgrading of their political family. “Right-wing ideas have won in the country, assures the mayor of La Baule Franck Louvrier. LR cannot win alone and it is not a tragedy.” But a party needs victories to exist. Eric Ciotti does not lack lucidity: “If we don’t win in 2027, we will end up like the radical party.” Unless LR has already become one.