The time of a speech, Saturday September 3, Recep Tayyip Erdogan left his peacekeeper clothes in the closet. The Turkish president, praised for his mediation between Russia and Ukraine, indulged in insults and threats of war against one of his (supposed) NATO allies, Greece: “if you go too far, the price to be paid will be heavy”.
Erdogan accuses Athens of violating Turkish airspace and aiming its planes over the Mediterranean – accusations denied by the person concerned. He threatens, without taking gloves, to reproduce Putin’s invasion, this time in southern Europe: “Your occupation of the islands [de la mer Égée, proches de la Turquie, NDLR] does not bind us in any way. When the time comes, we will do what is necessary. We can arrive suddenly, in the night.”
Look away from 80% inflation
Disturbing, but not surprising. For the Turkish president, threatening to wage war on his neighbors has almost become a daily exercise in rhetoric. For example, it has been announcing for four months that its troops will invade northern Syria, with no visible effect for the moment. “All Europeans understand that Erdogan is this angry guy who, as soon as an election approaches, will say whatever comes to mind to be aggressive and inflame his base, breathes Sinan Ciddi, specialist in Turkey and professor at Georgetown University in Washington. But Turkey has neither the military might nor the inclination to invade Greek islands. This fiery rhetoric is for purely internal purposes.”
Erdogan’s words must be analyzed in the light of the presidential elections of June 2023, when he will put his throne back on the line. His invectives against Greece owe nothing to chance: two days later, Monday September 5, fell official figures for inflation in Turkey, which reached 80%. A figure already amazing, but probably undervalued. An independent institute, ENAG, estimates this rise in the cost of living for Turks at… 181% in one year!
“Erdogan hopes for a Western reaction”
The Turkish power can try to manipulate the figures, the reality of the portfolio is implacable and is reflected in the polls. Today, the alliance led by Erdogan does not exceed 33% of voting intentions and would not be able to govern. Still, a conflict with Europe would be the worst option for the government, its economy not being able to last three days in the face of Western sanctions.
“If Turkey attacked a NATO ally, it would be a major earthquake, it is very unlikely that we will go that far, said Marc Pierini, former ambassador of the European Union in Ankara. On the other hand, it is possible that such verbal provocations will be followed by micro-operations consisting in planting a flag on a rock. Erdogan hopes for a Western reaction, in order to project an image of a strong leader at the head of an attacked Turkey.”
Threats and references to the wars of the past, in particular the massacres committed by Turkey against the Greek populations in 1922, are likely to resume with renewed vigor in the months to come. Athens knows this, and is preparing to undergo ever stronger provocations until June 2023.