“A child? No thank you, launches Lin, a 28-year-old Pekingese, influencer on social networks. Children demand too much attention, it is expensive to raise them and I would have to move to a bigger apartment. live as I want.” The young woman expresses the concerns of most young Chinese: the cost of living, education and health. To which were added the scars of three years of drastic health strategy, with its share of confinements and uncertainties, which extinguished the desire for a child a little more. “The ‘zero Covid’ policy has led to a zero economy, zero marriages, zero fertility,” summarizes Yi Fuxian, a specialist in Chinese demography.
The phenomenon is reflected more and more in the figures. China has officially recognized that its population (1.4 billion inhabitants) had shrunk by 850,000 people last year, for the first time in sixty years. From this year, India will take its place as the most populous country in the world. Only 9.56 million babies were born in the Middle Kingdom in 2022, twice as many as ten years ago. And this, despite the lifting of the one-child policy in 2016 (since 2021, it is even possible to have three children).
The over 60s represent 18.70% of the population. China follows in the footsteps of Japan, where 28% of the population is aged 65 or over, but is aging even more rapidly. A transformation that threatens a fragile social protection system and economic growth. “If people find that society is aging very quickly, they tend to save for their retirement. They save a lot more and consume less, underlines Shaun Roache, economist at S&P Asia-Pacific. makes the country too dependent on exports.”
“I want to remain a free woman”
To encourage births, local initiatives are multiplying. Several provinces pay family allowances, bonuses – nearly 2,600 euros in Shenzhen for families with three children – or aid for the purchase of housing. Beijing and Shanghai have increased maternity leave to 158 days, 60 more than the national norm, and public crèches are in the pipeline. As for the province of Sichuan, 80 million inhabitants, it has even lifted all the restrictions: the inhabitants can have as many children as they wish. A 180 degree turn after thirty-six years of birth control, between 1979 and 2015.
But nothing helps, strollers are still rare in large cities. In addition to the well-established habit of having only one child, a pampered and spoiled “little emperor”, two-thirds of the Chinese live in cities, where children represent a heavy financial burden. Another factor is that young Chinese women pursue their studies later, and are less and less likely to want to marry. “I live very well on my own,” Lin continues. “Family life in China is too heavy: the parents want to control everything and raise the children in your place. It’s suffocating, I want to remain a free woman. And the help from the authorities won’t change a thing!” A survey carried out last year reveals that two thirds of women aged 18 to 25 do not want children.
Finally, we note a drastic change in mentality among some young people who have adopted an apathetic philosophy nicknamed “tang ping”, “staying in bed”, rejecting social pressure to be content with a life without constraint, and therefore without children. Last year, a video that went viral showed a young man refusing to be taken to a quarantine camp for Covid patients. As the police threaten to punish his three-generation family, he coldly retorts, “We are the last generation.”
“The future of these young people is more and more uncertain, they have the impression of being in permanent competition for meager rewards. By way of protest, they choose not to have children, analyzes Barclay Bram, researcher at the Asia Society Institute Center. By not reproducing, against the wishes of the government, they feel like they are taking back control of their lives.”