Perceiving the weather is always a delicate matter and the cold spell affecting a large part of France this week reminds us of this. Headlines, announcement of emergency plans, continuous news channels tuned to the first snow… Concern is growing. What are the forecasts? Negative temperatures will certainly grip almost the entire country from this Tuesday, January 9: -5°C in Belfort, -3°C in Lille, but only -2°C in Paris, and barely 0°C in Lyon and Toulouse. Finally, it should be a little less than 10°C in Marseille. On a national scale, the national thermal indicator (the average temperature recorded in 30 stations) could fall below 0°C. Not enough to break records, like in northern Europe. The episode, moreover, does not even meet the criteria of a cold wave strictly speaking for the meteorological institute, which is content to speak of a cold “episode”.
Climate change marker
Is global warming disturbing us to the point of forgetting what a real winter is? There would be nothing surprising in this, the last few months have been particularly mild. Hot even. The year 2023 recently ranked as the second hottest year recorded in France since the start of the 20th century. Plunged into an overheated year, the current fall in the thermometer seems even greater, and memories of harsh winters disappear. Over the past ten years, most of the months of January have been marked by temperatures above seasonal norms.
Less sensitive than repeated heatwaves, forest fires, or droughts, the progressive loss of episodes of extreme cold is nevertheless a very clear marker of climate change. According to Météo France, cold waves have become “rarer, less long and less intense” over the last 35 years. The “four longest and most severe cold waves” were observed more than 30 years ago, specifies the organization, in February 1956, January 1963, January 1985 and January 1987. The last episode dates from 2012, with cold locally approaching -16°C, or even -18°C at low altitude. Let’s remember, they are the last signs of past winters.