On July 13, Donald Trump’s life was played out in a matter of inches. Dozens of photographs and of 3D reproductions of a precision rarely seen have made it possible to realize this. If the Republican candidate for president had not turned his head a second before the shots, he would probably have died during his rally in Pennsylvania. Instead, he escaped with a slight injury to the ear. A miracle, a “divine intervention”, even the person concerned and his supporters claim. But if the bullets grazed him physically, did they spare him psychologically?
“When I saw the images, I asked myself the same question,” confides Dr. Wayne Guillaume, psychiatrist in charge of the Cap Bastille department in Paris. The specialist nevertheless wishes to recall the “Goldwater rule“, adopted in 1973 by the American Psychiatric Association, which believes that making a diagnosis remotely, without consultation, is contrary to medical ethics. “We must be content to describe what happens to people who are confronted with similar events, then pose hypotheses,” he insists.
Flight, fight or shock
It is nevertheless possible to know what happened in Donald Trump’s brain immediately after the shots. Because the rule is the same for everyone: when the brain detects a dangerous situation, particularly when the integrity or life of the person is threatened, it triggers a cascade of mechanisms. Among them, the hyperactivation of the cerebral amygdala, a structure essential to decoding emotions and threats. “This is a response that is found in many animal species,” says Patrick Lemoine, psychiatrist, clinician and author of the book The mental health of those who made the world (Odile Jacob). It can be summed up by the rule of the three Fs: fight, flight or freeze.
These three “instinctive emergency states” serve to prepare the body for survival, either through physical confrontation, flight, or immobilization. The sympathetic nervous system then modifies the blood flow to the muscles and brain, accelerates the heart rate, increases perspiration, dilates the veins, etc. According to Patrick Lemoine, Donald Trump’s reaction, who remained on the ground for 25 seconds (immobilization), then got up asking where his shoes were (flight) before raising his fist to the sky and shouting: “Fight!”, perfectly illustrates the mechanism. The psychiatrist, who has been leading “dissociated anonymous” discussion groups for women who are victims of violence for nearly ten years, has collected numerous testimonies that also provide an account of this. “Some patients who were attacked found themselves on the ground, paralyzed, some for three minutes and up to three hours, others entered a dissociative state and did not even realize that they had violently hit their attacker,” he assures.
These responses can also alternate independently of the individual’s will. “We don’t choose our reaction, it’s completely instinctive. And it’s often misunderstood or poorly accepted, especially among people who freeze during an attack,” says Dr. David Masson. Are Donald Trump’s supporters who see his raised fist as a sign of combativeness and courage mistaken? “If he had fled, it would have been the same,” he confirms. “His reaction says nothing about him, nor does it provide information about any current or future psychological trauma.”
Acute stress and post-traumatic stress disorder
There is, however, a substantial scientific literature on the effects of firearms in the United States, where shootings are commonplace: Donald Trump has joined the list of nearly 100,000 Americans injured by gunfire each year, according to figures from a survey published in 2022 in the journal Jama. Thus, a study published in SSM – Mental Health indicates that survivors of shootings face increased risks of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety and substance abuse. Research presented in the journal American Psychological Association argue that such experiences can alter victims’ view of the world, making it neither safe nor understandable.
More generally, all forms of threat to physical integrity can cause a state of acute stress in victims. “It is defined by hypervigilance, a repetition syndrome (flashback) and avoidance behaviors, by refusing to confront again situations similar to the traumatic event, 45 to 50% of people who face aggression suffer from it”, explains Dr. Guillaume.
If this condition persists for more than a month, it is then post-traumatic stress disorder, which is characterized by the prolongation or even worsening of symptoms, as well as by difficulties in leading a normal life (refusing to leave one’s home, insomnia, etc.). “The development of post-traumatic stress disorder after a traumatic episode is less common, in the order of 10 to 15% of victims,” specifies Dr. Guillaume.
It is impossible to know whether Donald Trump suffers or will suffer from one of these disorders. And if this is the case, it is a safe bet that neither he nor his teams will communicate about it. Too incompatible with his public image built around his supposed health, strength and virility. “If this prevents him from verbalizing suffering and talking about the trauma, if there is one, then his chances of obtaining appropriate social support may be reduced,” believes Dr. Guillaume.
The continuation of the campaign and meetings could constitute another risk factor. In the case of acute stress, early exposure to similar situations can indeed reinforce the symptoms, assure the specialists. The quality of social support will, in any case, be essential. Indeed, the more the victims are surrounded and supported, the more the risks are limited. On this point, the Republican candidate can count on massive support from his supporters and the many professionals who accompany him. But emotional support – close ones, family – is also necessary.
It is also possible that Donald Trump will manage to benefit from this event. A study published in Aggression and Violent Behavior shows that some people who have survived trauma can gain empathy, but also develop stronger relationships with their loved ones. Donald Trump’s supporters, for their part, are convinced: their candidate comes out of it stronger than ever.
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