Slower, more uneven and more fragile growth in 2022. The not really encouraging prognosis comes from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. In question, of course: the war in Ukraine which will weaken emerging economies and could, in the end, stir up revolts.
With our correspondent in Geneva, Jeremiah Lance
Economies in debt at the end of the pandemic and maximum tension on the prices of energy and foodstuffs because of the war in Ukraine. The cocktail couldn’t be more toxic to the global economy.
One risk in particular worries the economist Richard Kozul-Wright, at the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: seeing certain countries plunge into an infernal spiral of insolvency, recession and halt to development: “ We are already seeing countries asking for help from the IMF. Pakistan did so at the end of last year; Sri Lanka did too; even Egypt, which had already concluded an agreement, returned to the IMF to ask to renegotiate it… And we are not talking about poor countries here. These are middle-income countries that are facing very strong economic and sometimes political pressures, because of the current situation. »
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Because of the conflict, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has revised its forecast for global growth downwards, from 3.6% to 2.6% for 2022.
The organization expects a significant slowdown in parts of Western Europe, Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia. As for Russia, it should plunge into a deep recession. With a contraction of 7.3% of its GDP.