“Ukrainians, you are fantastic!”. The Minister of Energy, Herman Halouschenko, wished, on Tuesday, October 11, to congratulate his compatriots for the capacity for resilience they are showing. If the courage of the Ukrainians no longer needs to be demonstrated, they have had to face a new ordeal in recent days. Since October 10, the Russian army has been working to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, damaging power plants and transformers that supply the country with electricity. “This strategy is part of a doctrine developed at the end of the 1980s by Colonel John Warden, according to which it is necessary to strike all the infrastructures of the enemy country to paralyze it”, explains Michel Goya, military historian and former colonel of the navy troops.
The destruction of energy production sites would, first of all, undermine the country’s economy, Russia betting on the fact that more than 50% of the electricity produced in Ukraine comes from nuclear power plants. According to the Ukrainian Minister of Energy, 30% of energy infrastructure has been damaged since the beginning of the week, which has caused major power cuts, such as in Lviv and kyiv. It is also a question, for Moscow, of making obsolete the Ukrainian project to export part of its electricity towards European countries via Romania. The Russian idea is to accentuate kyiv’s dependence on foreign countries and to show Westerners that the war has reached a new level. “The Kremlin wants to fuel this peaceful pro-Russian discourse which calls for an end to aid to Ukraine, according to the increasingly widespread argument that the conflict is going too far”, observes Michel Goya.
“The psychological aspect never works”
Next, Russia’s objective is to undermine the morale of the Ukrainians, by giving them a difficult winter. A useless strategy, according to the military historian, who points out that “the psychological aspect never works”. What the attitude of the Ukrainians, praised by the Minister of Energy, seems to prove. Especially since the government reacted quickly to the numerous power cuts that suddenly hit the territory. He agreed with DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy investor, to work out a timetable so that people were no longer surprised by the cuts, and therefore made them accept them in an act of resistance. shared citizenship.
On appeal from the government, consumption was also voluntarily reduced by 10% by households on Monday evening in the Rivne and kyiv regions. And despite the intensity of the strikes, Russia would have to destroy “more than 50% of the lines to achieve complete isolation of the system and thus create a lasting disruption of supply”, as explained, at France 24Ana Creti, member of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials.
The targeting of energy sites finally takes on a symbolic dimension. “These bombings have no impact on ground operations, but Putin wants to show that he is not affected by events, that he is always on the initiative”, underlines Michel Goya. The signing, at the beginning of October, of a decree formalizing the appropriation of the Zaporijia nuclear power plant goes in this direction. In fact, it was already detached from the Ukrainian network, but the signing of a document has the merit of sanctifying this control.
In addition to a strong message addressed to the Ukrainians, this strategic orientation of the Kremlin sends one to the Russians: the war is total, and if difficulties were to slow down the smooth running of operations, Russia would always be able to react with force. There is therefore also a vengeful tone in the action of destroying the Ukrainian energy sector. The expression of a deep annoyance, that of a country now having to wage a defensive war. That of a weakened Bear forced to protect a territory that was difficult to conquer.