When rumors mingle with facts, forecasts given by reputable secret services look like a good way to see things more clearly. This Thursday, the President of the United States and the Pentagon tried to analyze the potential continuation of the conflict in Ukraine, while recalling that unpredictability remained the only certainty.
The conflict could last several months
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby first spoke of the announced refocusing of the Russian war effort on Donbass, in eastern Ukraine, which, according to the Department of Defense, “raises the prospect of a protracted conflict”, due to the presence of active and seasoned Ukrainian soldiers in the region. For eight years, a latent conflict has pitted pro-Russian separatists against Ukrainian forces.
The withdrawal of Russian troops, observed in Chernobyl, in the north of the country, and in Gostomel, north-west of kyiv, is not a harbinger of appeasement. According to US intelligence, these departures look like repositionings. “We have absolutely no indication that these soldiers are returning home, or that they are permanently removed from combat,” the Pentagon said. Above all, this movement does not prevent Russia from continuing its incessant bombardments on kyiv, Cherniguiv or even Kharkiv.
Referring then to a future beyond the war, the Pentagon declared that the United States would enter into consultation with its allies in order to decide “what will be an adequate military posture in Europe”, because whatever the outcome of the conflict , “security on the continent will have changed and will have to be addressed.”
Putin would be more isolated than ever
Skeptical about the announcements of the partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the American president ventured to mention the case of his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, whom he says is “isolated” and feels “misled” by his collaborators . “We have indications that Putin has fired or placed under house arrest some of his advisers,” he said. The situation of the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, who suddenly disappeared from the radar, encourages the American intelligence services to believe in a deep annoyance of the Russian president as to the progress of the operations. “One of the Achilles’ heels of autocracies is that in these systems, there is no longer anyone who tells the truth to the power in place, or who has the possibility to do so. And I think that is a phenomenon that we now see in Russia”, commented for his part the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on a trip to Algeria.
White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield confirmed that ongoing tensions exist between Putin and his staff. But each piece of information must be taken with caution, reminded President Biden in conclusion, acknowledging that he did not have “irrefutable proof”, and calling for beware of the many speculations that authoritarian regimes like to create and believe.