Maps giving the position of Russia and Ukraine to within a few kilometres, boxes specifying the state of the various resources of the two armies, private exchanges between Allied leaders… For the past few days, documents classified as defense secret on the war in Ukraine, published on social networks agitate the American administration and its allies. Veracity, impact on the conflict and origin of these leaks: L’Express takes stock.
Are the documents authentic?
US officials have hinted in the US press that many of these documents are genuine. Officially, the Pentagon is working to “assess the validity of the photographed documents circulating on social networks” and recognizes that they “appear to contain sensitive and highly classified information”.
“Photos appear to show documents in a format similar to that used to provide daily updates to our senior Ukraine and Russia-related operations, as well as other intelligence updates,” he said. said a spokesman for the US Department of Defense, but some “appear to have been modified”.
At least one of the documents appears to have been altered to suggest that Ukraine suffered greater losses than Russia. A “significant number” of classified US intelligence documents on South Korea, which have leaked in recent weeks among others, have been “falsified”, the South Korean presidency also said on Tuesday.
Do these leaks have an influence on the war?
According to a close friend of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, quoted by CNN, these leaked documents from the Pentagon would have pushed Ukraine to modify its battle plans, while some of them notably mention the weak points of its army. More specifically, two pieces of information, relating to the state of anti-aircraft defenses and kyiv’s counter-offensive capabilities, could jeopardize Ukrainian strategy.
Several documents warn in particular of the wear of the anti-aircraft defenses of kyiv, an element confirmed by the American authorities. According to intelligence, Ukraine may very soon run out of anti-aircraft missiles. Weakened by repeated barrages of Russian drones and missiles, the air defense could fracture, confirmed members of the American administration on condition of anonymity.
As kyiv prepares to try to recover ground, and as Russia digs trenches, certain documents also undermine hopes of a counter-offensive. Strong Russian defenses and “continuing Ukrainian deficiencies in training and ammunition reserves are likely to strain any progress and compound casualties during the counteroffensive,” a classified US intelligence document says, according to the washington post.
How far has the United States penetrated the Russian command?
American espionage would thus have access to Russian strike orders, to the nearest building, before they are carried out. One document in particular mentions an attack plan, scheduled for February 2023, and the list of a dozen military infrastructures and as many bridges, targeted by the Russian Minister of Defense, reports the washington post. Another would show that the spies also had access to the exchanges of their Russian counterparts, the “GRU”. He would describe Russian propaganda inclinations in Africa, against the United States and France. The Wagner group would also be tapped.
Does the United States spy on its allies?
Some of these documents would also report spying by the United States on some of its allies, a practice which had already been revealed by Wikileaks. One page describes a conversation between two senior South Korean national security officials about the concerns of the country’s National Security Council over a request for munitions from the United States. Another said Israel “will likely consider providing lethal aid under increased pressure from the United States or a perceived deterioration” in its relationship with Russia. Whether they are correct remains to be determined.
How did the United States react?
The leak of classified American documents, particularly related to Ukraine, poses a “very serious” risk to the national security of the United States, the Pentagon said on Monday. President Joe Biden was briefed on the situation, which appears to be of growing concern to his administration, “late last week,” his spokesman John Kirby said.
The fact that these documents are circulating online represents “a very serious risk to national security and has the potential to fuel disinformation”, a spokesman for the United States Department of Defense, Chris Meagher, also told reporters on Monday. “We are continuing to investigate how this happened, as well as the extent of the problem,” he added. The Ministry of Justice has also opened a criminal investigation.
Where and when did the documents appear?
The steady stream of photographs of classified documents have been discovered on Twitter, Telegram, Discord and other platforms in recent days, although some may have circulated online for weeks before attracting media attention. Some were posted on Discord – a platform popular with video game enthusiasts – including channels of fans of a YouTuber and Minecraft game players, Bellingcat said. First date of posting: before January 2023, according to this same source.
Who is behind these leaks?
What worries the United States? It’s that the source of this leak has still not been identified: “We don’t know who is responsible for this. And we don’t know if they have more documents to post” online, explained the door. -speech of the Pentagon, before adding: “Is this a matter of concern for us? Absolutely.” Russia has denied being behind the publication of these documents. “This tendency to blame Russia for everything is becoming epidemic,” inquired Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, on Monday.
Who then could have published so much confidential information? A chat channel linked to the Wagner Group posted this message on Telegram on Friday: “We must not rule out the high probability that such a leak of classified information […] either a disinformation operation by Western intelligence services aimed at misleading us.” At this stage, no hypothesis has been ruled out.