War in Ukraine, what scenarios for the future? The five unknowns of the conflict

Despite international calls to end the war, the Russian army continues to relentlessly shell the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Thursday, July 7, Vladimir Putin even went so far as to challenge Western countries to “win on the battlefield”, claiming to have “not yet started serious things”. While the conflict promises to be long, several unknowns remain. Overview in five questions.

• Can Ukraine pull off a counter-offensive?

kyiv wants to regain access to the Black Sea, vital for its agricultural exports and its economy. The reconquest effort should therefore be focused on the Kherson region, where Moscow has started to retreat in recent weeks. “Ukrainians will not want to destroy civilian areas, underlines in a recent analysis Lawrence Freeman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London. They will therefore have to adopt different tactics, relying on the precision of their new weapons, concentrating on supply lines, bases and command centers and, finally, making opportunistic advances, with tactics of guerrilla warfare against the occupying forces.”

Nothing says, however, that such a counter-offensive will succeed in driving out the Russians. “If this does not work, there is a risk of a collapse in Ukrainian morale, which would complicate an already difficult military and political situation for Ukraine, believes François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research. counter-offensive, and therefore without the prospect of success, morale will also erode.”

• Will Western military support increase?

For François Heisbourg, this is the key question for the rest of the war. “Since mid-April, Westerners have sent collective weapons (artillery, tanks, missile launchers), but only in a ‘stopgap’ logic, underlines the former diplomat. In the coming weeks, they must decide whether or not they change scale. This requires entering into a logic of war economy, with new production chains.”

It is all the more urgent, for the troops of kyiv, that they arrive at the end of their stocks of Soviet shells, like those provided by former members of the Warsaw Pact. Any plan to reconquer the occupied territories therefore requires ever larger deliveries of weapons from the West. “The Ukrainian army is becoming an army with Western standards, the unknown lies in its ability to wage war while reforming, points out François Heisbourg. Because this new equipment requires training, logistical means and maintenance.”

• Will the war spill over from Ukraine?

Until now, it has mainly taken place there, with the exception of a few occasional Ukrainian operations in Russia. The latter has not carried out any attack against a NATO country, except in the cyber world – Norway accused Moscow at the end of June of having hacked its institutional sites. Some experts fear, however, that the confrontation will become more direct between Russians and Westerners, to the point of triggering a new world war.

“By accident, an overflow of the conflict is possible and could concern countries like Poland or the Baltic countries, but it would probably not be by will of Moscow, estimates Matthieu Boulègue, researcher specializing in Eurasia at Chatham House, a London think tank. The Russians are already struggling with a regional war in Ukraine and would hardly have the capacity to manage another front.” Finnish Broadcasting Corporation, EPNthus revealed that a Russian military base near the border with Finland, Alakurti, was recently “emptied” of its vehicles to supply the Ukrainian front.

• Will the Russian army run out of troops… and morale?

kyiv claims that more than 30,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the invasion. They would be at least 15,000 according to Westerners. To this count must be added the wounded, missing or prisoner personnel – approximately 60,000 men out of the 200,000 engaged. “For the first time in its history, Russia risks running out of men in a war compared to its adversary, argues François Heisbourg. Because the reservoir of Ukrainians, who are playing their survival as a nation, is deeper. ”

So far, Vladimir Putin has refused to decree general mobilization for what is, officially, only a “special operation”. “He knows how unpopular that would be,” points out Lawrence Freeman. Especially since the morale of the Russian troops is probably not very high. “The losses are beginning to be seen, even if the information is very controlled by the Kremlin, specifies Mathieu Boulègue. It is difficult to imagine a strong will to fight, on the Russian side, after four months of such a war.” It remains to be seen how much this human factor can benefit Ukrainians.

• When will Ukraine and Russia negotiate?

Not immediately. So far, the two countries are barely able to agree on some prisoner exchanges. Admittedly, there were discussions in the first weeks following the invasion, particularly in Turkey. “But it was when the Russians thought the war would be quickly over,” recalls François Heisbourg. kyiv did not fall, a war of attrition took over from the great maneuvers and the talks logically ceased.

“There is no playable peace plan at the moment, believes Mathieu Boulègue. Because there is no reason for Russia to return the occupied territories.” Nor for Ukraine to give up trying to conquer them. However, kyiv will obtain nothing from Moscow without a reversal of the course of the war. “The challenge for Ukraine is to develop an offensive that cannot be overthrown by the Russians, argues Lawrence Freeman. Can the Ukrainians win? Yes. Will the Ukrainians win? That is not yet clear.”